Astra Agro (Indonesia) Price Prediction
| AALI Stock | IDR 6,200 100.00 1.59% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
34
Oversold | Overbought |
Astra Agro Lestari stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Astra Agro shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Astra Agro's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Astra Agro and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Astra Agro's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Astra Agro Lestari, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Astra Agro based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Astra stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Astra Agro over a specific investment horizon. Using Astra Agro hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Astra Agro Lestari from the perspective of Astra Agro response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Astra Agro. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Astra Agro to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Astra because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Astra Agro after-hype prediction price | IDR 6200.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Astra |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Astra Agro's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Astra Agro After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Astra Agro at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Astra Agro or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Astra Agro, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Astra Agro Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Astra Agro's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Astra Agro's historical news coverage. Astra Agro's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 6,199 and 6,201, respectively. We have considered Astra Agro's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Astra Agro is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Astra Agro Lestari is based on 3 months time horizon.
Astra Agro Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Astra Agro is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Astra Agro backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Astra Agro, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 0.96 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
6,200 | 6,200 | 0.00 |
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Astra Agro Hype Timeline
Astra Agro Lestari is presently traded for 6,200on Jakarta Exchange of Indonesia. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Astra is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.15%. %. The volatility of related hype on Astra Agro is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6,200. About 80.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.73. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Astra Agro Lestari has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.29. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 892.65. The firm last dividend was issued on the 12th of October 2022. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next estimated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Astra Agro Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Astra Agro Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Astra Agro's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Astra Agro's future price movements. Getting to know how Astra Agro's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Astra Agro may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BKSL | Sentul City Tbk | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 5.00 | (8.33) | 17.86 | |
| GJTL | Gajah Tunggal Tbk | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.66 | (0.02) | 5.43 | (5.26) | 18.05 | |
| AKRA | Akr Corporindo Tbk | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.80 | (0.02) | 3.06 | (2.71) | 12.46 | |
| SSIA | Surya Semesta Internusa | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.89 | 0.36 | 9.41 | (2.97) | 34.52 |
Astra Agro Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Astra price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Astra using various technical indicators. When you analyze Astra charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Astra Agro Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Astra Agro stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Astra Agro Lestari, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Astra Agro based on analysis of Astra Agro hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Astra Agro's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Astra Agro's related companies. Story Coverage note for Astra Agro
The number of cover stories for Astra Agro depends on current market conditions and Astra Agro's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Astra Agro is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Astra Agro's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Astra Agro Short Properties
Astra Agro's future price predictability will typically decrease when Astra Agro's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Astra Agro Lestari often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Astra Agro's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Astra Agro's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.9 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.9 T |
Check out Astra Agro Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Economic Indicators module to top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing.
Complementary Tools for Astra Stock analysis
When running Astra Agro's price analysis, check to measure Astra Agro's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Astra Agro is operating at the current time. Most of Astra Agro's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Astra Agro's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Astra Agro's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Astra Agro to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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