Astra Agro Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| AALI Stock | IDR 6,075 75.00 1.25% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Astra Agro Lestari on the next trading day is expected to be 6,062 with a mean absolute deviation of 60.85 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3,590. Astra Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Astra Agro stock prices and determine the direction of Astra Agro Lestari's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Astra Agro's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Astra Agro to cross-verify your projections. Astra |
Most investors in Astra Agro cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Astra Agro's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Astra Agro's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Astra Agro - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Astra Agro prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Astra Agro price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Astra Agro Lestari. Astra Agro Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of June
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Astra Agro Lestari on the next trading day is expected to be 6,062 with a mean absolute deviation of 60.85, mean absolute percentage error of 5,732, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3,590.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Astra Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Astra Agro's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Astra Agro Stock Forecast Pattern
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Astra Agro Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Astra Agro's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Astra Agro's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6,061 and 6,063, respectively. We have considered Astra Agro's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Astra Agro stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Astra Agro stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 11.0995 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 60.8475 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0096 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3590.0001 |
Predictive Modules for Astra Agro
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Astra Agro Lestari. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Astra Agro's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Astra Agro
For every potential investor in Astra, whether a beginner or expert, Astra Agro's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Astra Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Astra. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Astra Agro's price trends.Astra Agro Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Astra Agro stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Astra Agro could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Astra Agro by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Astra Agro Lestari Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Astra Agro's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Astra Agro's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Astra Agro Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Astra Agro stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Astra Agro shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Astra Agro stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Astra Agro Lestari entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Astra Agro Risk Indicators
The analysis of Astra Agro's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Astra Agro's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting astra stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8427 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.09 | |||
| Variance | 1.19 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Other Information on Investing in Astra Stock
Astra Agro financial ratios help investors to determine whether Astra Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Astra with respect to the benefits of owning Astra Agro security.