Grupo Aval Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 2.45
| AVAL Stock | USD 2.45 0.02 0.82% |
Grupo |
Grupo Aval Target Price Odds to finish over 2.45
The tendency of Grupo Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 2.45 | 90 days | 2.45 | about 46.68 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Grupo Aval to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 46.68 (This Grupo Aval probability density function shows the probability of Grupo Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Grupo Aval has a beta of 0.21. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Grupo Aval average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Grupo Aval will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Grupo Aval has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Grupo Aval Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Grupo Aval
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Grupo Aval. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Grupo Aval's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Grupo Aval Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Grupo Aval is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Grupo Aval's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Grupo Aval, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Grupo Aval within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.21 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.12 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Grupo Aval Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Grupo Aval for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Grupo Aval can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Grupo Aval generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| On 8th of April 2024 Grupo Aval paid $ 0.0102 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: Grupo Aval Announces the Filing of Its Form 20-F for the Year Ended December 31, 2023 |
Grupo Aval Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Grupo Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Grupo Aval's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Grupo Aval's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 23.7 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | -18.6 T |
Grupo Aval Technical Analysis
Grupo Aval's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Grupo Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Grupo Aval. In general, you should focus on analyzing Grupo Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Grupo Aval Predictive Forecast Models
Grupo Aval's time-series forecasting models is one of many Grupo Aval's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Grupo Aval's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Grupo Aval
Checking the ongoing alerts about Grupo Aval for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Grupo Aval help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Grupo Aval generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| On 8th of April 2024 Grupo Aval paid $ 0.0102 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: Grupo Aval Announces the Filing of Its Form 20-F for the Year Ended December 31, 2023 |
Check out Grupo Aval Backtesting, Grupo Aval Valuation, Grupo Aval Correlation, Grupo Aval Hype Analysis, Grupo Aval Volatility, Grupo Aval History as well as Grupo Aval Performance. For more information on how to buy Grupo Stock please use our How to buy in Grupo Stock guide.Note that the Grupo Aval information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Grupo Aval's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.
Complementary Tools for Grupo Stock analysis
When running Grupo Aval's price analysis, check to measure Grupo Aval's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Grupo Aval is operating at the current time. Most of Grupo Aval's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Grupo Aval's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Grupo Aval's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Grupo Aval to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Grupo Aval's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Grupo Aval. If investors know Grupo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Grupo Aval listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.84) | Earnings Share 0.16 | Revenue Per Share 9.9 K | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.07) | Return On Assets 0.0073 |
The market value of Grupo Aval is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Grupo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Grupo Aval's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Grupo Aval's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Grupo Aval's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Grupo Aval's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Grupo Aval's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Grupo Aval is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Grupo Aval's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.