Grupo Aval Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
AVAL Stock | USD 2.49 0.02 0.81% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Grupo Aval on the next trading day is expected to be 2.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.44. Grupo Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Grupo Aval stock prices and determine the direction of Grupo Aval's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Grupo Aval's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Grupo Aval's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Grupo Aval's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Grupo Aval fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Grupo Aval to cross-verify your projections. Grupo |
Most investors in Grupo Aval cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Grupo Aval's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Grupo Aval's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Grupo Aval is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility. Grupo Aval 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 22nd of May
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Grupo Aval on the next trading day is expected to be 2.48 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.44.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Grupo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Grupo Aval's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Grupo Aval Stock Forecast Pattern
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Grupo Aval Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Grupo Aval's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Grupo Aval's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.69 and 4.28, respectively. We have considered Grupo Aval's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Grupo Aval stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Grupo Aval stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 105.2469 |
Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 9.0E-4 |
MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0429 |
MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0182 |
SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.4425 |
Predictive Modules for Grupo Aval
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Grupo Aval. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Grupo Aval's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Grupo Aval
For every potential investor in Grupo, whether a beginner or expert, Grupo Aval's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Grupo Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Grupo. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Grupo Aval's price trends.View Grupo Aval Related Equities
Risk & Return | Correlation |
Grupo Aval Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Grupo Aval's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Grupo Aval's current price.Cycle Indicators | ||
Math Operators | ||
Math Transform | ||
Momentum Indicators | ||
Overlap Studies | ||
Pattern Recognition | ||
Price Transform | ||
Statistic Functions | ||
Volatility Indicators | ||
Volume Indicators |
Grupo Aval Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Grupo Aval stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Grupo Aval shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Grupo Aval stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Grupo Aval entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Grupo Aval Risk Indicators
The analysis of Grupo Aval's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Grupo Aval's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting grupo stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Mean Deviation | 1.31 | |||
Semi Deviation | 1.92 | |||
Standard Deviation | 1.8 | |||
Variance | 3.23 | |||
Downside Variance | 4.33 | |||
Semi Variance | 3.68 | |||
Expected Short fall | (1.41) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Grupo Aval to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Grupo Stock please use our How to buy in Grupo Stock guide.Note that the Grupo Aval information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Grupo Aval's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Commodity Directory module to find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges.
Complementary Tools for Grupo Stock analysis
When running Grupo Aval's price analysis, check to measure Grupo Aval's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Grupo Aval is operating at the current time. Most of Grupo Aval's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Grupo Aval's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Grupo Aval's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Grupo Aval to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Grupo Aval's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Grupo Aval. If investors know Grupo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Grupo Aval listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.73) | Earnings Share 0.09 | Revenue Per Share 9.1 K | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.24) | Return On Assets 0.0053 |
The market value of Grupo Aval is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Grupo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Grupo Aval's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Grupo Aval's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Grupo Aval's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Grupo Aval's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Grupo Aval's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Grupo Aval is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Grupo Aval's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.