The average rating for First Northwest Bancorp, as provided by one analyst, is 'Hold'. Is this consensus based on technical analysis? It's important to note that standard technical analysis typically employs the use of price momentum, patterns, and trends by examining historical prices. The goal is to identify signals based on the market sentiment of First Northwest Bancorp investors, which reflects their perception of the company's future value. Let's delve into a few aspects of the technical analysis for First Northwest Bancorp.
Supplemental assessment
First Northwest Bancorp (US Stocks: FNWB) has been showing some interesting movements from a technical perspective. The stock's 200-day moving average stands at
13.44, slightly above its last price of 12.96, indicating a potential bearish trend. However, the stock's beta of 0.6755 suggests it's less volatile than the market, which could appeal to risk-averse investors. The total risk alpha of -0.11 and standard deviation of 2.41 further underscore the stock's relatively low risk profile. However, the short ratio of 1.66 suggests that short sellers are not heavily betting against the stock, which could be a positive sign. On the income side, First Northwest Bancorp reported a net income of
$13.5 million, while its net interest income stood at
$69.4 million. However, it's worth noting that the company reported a noncontrolling interest in a consolidated entity as a loss of
$3.3 million. Despite these mixed signals, the potential upside of 3.41 suggests that there could be room for growth in the stock's future.
Using predictive
technical analysis, we can analyze different prices and returns patterns and
diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of First Northwest Bancorp. In general, sophisticated investors focus on analyzing First Northwest stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environment and drivers. They apply predictive analytics to build First Northwest's daily price indicators and compare them against related drivers such as
momentum indicators and various other types of predictive indicators. Using this methodology combined with a more conventional
technical analysis and
fundamental analysis, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of
First Northwest's intrinsic value. In addition to deriving basic predictive indicators for First Northwest, many experienced traders also check how macroeconomic factors affect First Northwest price patterns. Please read more on our
technical analysis page or use our predictive modules below to complement your research.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed
many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Northwest's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as First Northwest. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against First Northwest's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, First Northwest's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in First Northwest Bancorp.
How does First Stands against Peers?
Analyzing First Northwest competition or peers my help you to expand the diversification possibilities of your existing portfolios and to get a better perspective on locking in new positions. Try to analyze the advantages of investing in traded instruments related to First Northwest across multiple sectors and
thematic ideas. A good competitive analysis can cover a lot of different areas. But what areas to choose depends on who you are. The more exhaustive you are in your analysis, the more effective your competitive analysis will be. Check out
First Northwest Competition DetailsFirst Northwest Gross Profit
First Northwest Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing First Northwest previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show First Northwest Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check First Northwest's
gross profit and other
fundamental indicators for more details.
Closer look at First Northwest Semi Deviation
First Northwest Bancorp has current Semi Deviation of 2.31. Semi-deviation provides a good measure of downside risk for a equity or a portfolio. It is similar to standard deviation, but it only looks at periods where the returns are less than the target or average level.
Semi-deviation is the square root of semi-variance. Semi-variance is calculated by averaging the deviations of returns that have a result that is less than the mean.
Semi Deviation | = | SQRT(SV) |
| = | 2.31 |
Let's now compare First Northwest Semi Deviation to its closest peers:
| FNWB | 2.3113300841934517 |
| STZ | 0.54 |
| CCF | 1.21 |
| PH | 1.2 |
| COCO | 2.13 |
First Northwest Bancorp (NASDAQ: FNWB) is a stock to watch, with significant indicators pointing towards a possible unlocking of value. The company has a market capitalization of
124.42M and net assets of
2.04B. With a PE Ratio of 7.15 and a Price to Book ratio of 0.90X, it's trading below its book value, suggesting potential undervaluation.
The stock has a 200-day moving average of 13.4442, with a 52-week high and low of 16.9071 and 9.8748 respectively, indicating room for potential upside. The company's operating margin stands at 0.23%, reflecting a profitable operation. Moreover, the payout ratio of 0.1564 indicates a conservative approach to
dividends, leaving substantial room for reinvestment. The company's shares are largely held by institutions (56.20%) and insiders (19.70%), which can be a sign of confidence in the company's
future prospects. However, the short percent of 0.0028 implies some market skepticism. Despite a probability of bankruptcy at 47.17%, the company has a healthy cash flow from operations of 15.9M and a net income of 13.5M, demonstrating its ability to generate profit. Therefore, FNWB could be a potential value pick for investors looking for undervalued stocks with solid fundamentals. .
First Northwest implied volatility may change after the rise
First Northwest Bancorp's current downside deviation is at 2.71, indicating a potential risk due to volatility. This degree of deviation implies that the stock's returns could be subject to significant fluctuations. Although this may pose certain investment risks, it also potentially creates opportunities for investors who excel in volatile markets. An increase in the downside deviation could change the implied volatility of First Northwest Bancorp, making the stock's future price movements less predictable. Therefore, investors are encouraged to closely monitor this development. First Northwest Bancorp currently exhibits a below-average downside deviation. It has an Information Ratio of 0.02 and a Jensen Alpha of 0.01. Nonetheless, we recommend investors to further examine First Northwest Bancorp's expected returns to ensure all indicators are consistent with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk. Understanding different
market volatility trends often assists investors in timing the market.
The correct use of volatility indicators allows traders to measure First Northwest's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly affect
First Northwest's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch the value of their shares decrease. This often compels investors to rebalance their portfolios by purchasing different stocks as prices drop. Despite First Northwest Bancorp's slip today, the stock still holds potential for investors. With a fiscal year end in December, the company's valuation market value stands at
$12.96, slightly above the valuation real value of
$12.77. The analyst overall consensus maintains a 'Hold' position, with the analyst target price estimated value at $13, matching both the analyst lowest and highest estimated target price. The possible upside price of $16.36 offers an attractive potential return, despite the possible downside risk of $11.29. Investors should consider these factors carefully before making a decision. .
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Nico Santiago is a PR Contributor to Macroaxis Editorial Board. Nico is a relatively new author here at Macroaxis and he likes to work on advertising and sponsored content and marketing for the company. Nico spends most of his time surfing when the weather is nice and he spends the rest of the year writing for various blogs and companies, as he works on his upcoming books, The Rise of the Financial Machines and Time Series Modelling with AI.
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