First Mid Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| FMBH Stock | USD 32.63 0.03 0.09% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of First Mid Illinois on the next trading day is expected to be 33.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.57 and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.26. First Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast First Mid stock prices and determine the direction of First Mid Illinois's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of First Mid's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although First Mid's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of First Mid's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of First Mid fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Mid to cross-verify your projections. First |
Most investors in First Mid cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the First Mid's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets First Mid's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
First Mid polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for First Mid Illinois as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. First Mid Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 16th of May 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of First Mid Illinois on the next trading day is expected to be 33.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.57, mean absolute percentage error of 0.53, and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.26.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict First Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that First Mid's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
First Mid Stock Forecast Pattern
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First Mid Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting First Mid's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. First Mid's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.79 and 34.92, respectively. We have considered First Mid's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of First Mid stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent First Mid stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.3213 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5688 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0185 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 35.2644 |
Predictive Modules for First Mid
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as First Mid Illinois. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Mid's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for First Mid
For every potential investor in First, whether a beginner or expert, First Mid's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. First Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in First. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying First Mid's price trends.View First Mid Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
First Mid Illinois Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of First Mid's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of First Mid's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
First Mid Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how First Mid stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading First Mid shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying First Mid stock market strength indicators, traders can identify First Mid Illinois entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 559.11 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.04) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 32.74 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 32.7 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.12) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.03) |
First Mid Risk Indicators
The analysis of First Mid's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in First Mid's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting first stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.7 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.8 | |||
| Variance | 3.23 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.17 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.9 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.50) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of First Mid to cross-verify your projections. Note that the First Mid Illinois information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other First Mid's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Complementary Tools for First Stock analysis
When running First Mid's price analysis, check to measure First Mid's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Mid is operating at the current time. Most of First Mid's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Mid's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Mid's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Mid to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is First Mid's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of First Mid. If investors know First will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about First Mid listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.08) | Dividend Share 0.92 | Earnings Share 3.08 | Revenue Per Share 12.727 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.208 |
The market value of First Mid Illinois is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Mid's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Mid's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Mid's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Mid's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Mid's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Mid is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Mid's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.