Garmin Stock Price Prediction
| GRMN Stock | USD 163.03 0.17 0.10% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
78
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.362 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.37 | EPS Estimate Current Year 5.68 | EPS Estimate Next Year 6.18 | Wall Street Target Price 143.08 |
Using Garmin hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Garmin from the perspective of Garmin response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Garmin using Garmin's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Garmin using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Garmin's stock price.
Garmin Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Garmin's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Garmin. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Garmin stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Garmin may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Garmin and may potentially protect profits, hedge Garmin with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 127.9746 | Short Percent 0.0152 | Short Ratio 2.48 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.1 M | 50 Day MA 154.896 |
Garmin Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Garmin's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Garmin. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Garmin can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Garmin. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Garmin's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Garmin.
Garmin Implied Volatility | 23.28 |
Garmin's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Garmin stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Garmin's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Garmin stock will not fluctuate a lot when Garmin's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Garmin to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Garmin because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Garmin after-hype prediction price | USD 163.03 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Garmin contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Garmin will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.46% per day over the life of the 2024-06-21 option contract. With Garmin trading at USD 163.03, that is roughly USD 2.37 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Garmin's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Garmin options at the current volatility level of 23.28%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Garmin |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Garmin's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Garmin After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Garmin at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Garmin or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Garmin, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Garmin Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Garmin's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Garmin's historical news coverage. Garmin's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 161.07 and 164.99, respectively. We have considered Garmin's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Garmin is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Garmin is based on 3 months time horizon.
Garmin Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Garmin is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Garmin backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Garmin, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.26 | 1.97 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
163.03 | 163.03 | 0.00 |
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Garmin Hype Timeline
Garmin is currently traded for 163.03. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.14, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.16. Garmin is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.26%. %. The volatility of related hype on Garmin is about 327.24%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 162.87. About 20.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of Garmin was currently reported as 37.73. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.08. Garmin last dividend was issued on the 14th of June 2024. The entity had 2:1 split on the 16th of August 2006. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Garmin Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Garmin Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Garmin's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Garmin's future price movements. Getting to know how Garmin's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Garmin may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| VNT | Vontier Corp | 1.39 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 1.44 | (2.23) | 5.67 | |
| TDY | Teledyne Technologies Incorporated | (3.41) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 1.90 | (2.01) | 12.59 | |
| ESE | ESCO Technologies | 1.26 | 9 per month | 1.75 | 0.05 | 2.52 | (2.51) | 9.03 | |
| MKSI | MKS Instruments | (5.49) | 10 per month | 2.77 | (0.01) | 3.81 | (3.95) | 13.31 | |
| ST | Sensata Technologies Holding | (0.06) | 10 per month | 1.30 | 0.13 | 2.49 | (2.48) | 10.19 | |
| FTV | Fortive Corp | 0.19 | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 1.28 | (2.00) | 7.32 | |
| COHR | Coherent | (0.22) | 10 per month | 2.37 | 0.03 | 4.57 | (3.93) | 9.91 | |
| CGNX | Cognex | 0.90 | 10 per month | 1.59 | 0.05 | 2.76 | (2.49) | 8.89 | |
| NOVT | Novanta | (0.42) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.48 | (2.90) | 7.02 | |
| TRMB | Trimble | (0.16) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 1.63 | (2.30) | 9.48 |
Garmin Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Garmin price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Garmin using various technical indicators. When you analyze Garmin charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Garmin Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Garmin stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Garmin, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Garmin based on analysis of Garmin hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Garmin's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Garmin's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0227 | 0.0382 | 0.0344 | 0.021 | Price To Sales Ratio | 4.71 | 3.66 | 4.2 | 5.36 |
Story Coverage note for Garmin
The number of cover stories for Garmin depends on current market conditions and Garmin's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Garmin is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Garmin's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Garmin Short Properties
Garmin's future price predictability will typically decrease when Garmin's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Garmin often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Garmin's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Garmin's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 192.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2 B |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Garmin Stock
When determining whether Garmin offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Garmin's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Garmin Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Garmin Stock:Check out Garmin Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Garmin Stock, please use our How to Invest in Garmin guide.You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.
Is Consumer Electronics space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Garmin. If investors know Garmin will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Garmin listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.362 | Dividend Share 2.92 | Earnings Share 7.08 | Revenue Per Share 28.525 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.204 |
The market value of Garmin is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Garmin that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Garmin's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Garmin's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Garmin's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Garmin's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Garmin's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Garmin is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Garmin's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.