Exelixis Stock Price Prediction
| EXEL Stock | USD 23.46 0.27 1.14% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
46
Oversold | Overbought |
Exelixis stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Exelixis shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Exelixis' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Exelixis and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Exelixis' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Exelixis, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Exelixis' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.99) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.31 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.23 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.47 | Wall Street Target Price 26.74 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Exelixis based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Exelixis stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Exelixis over a specific investment horizon. Using Exelixis hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Exelixis from the perspective of Exelixis response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Exelixis using Exelixis' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Exelixis using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Exelixis' stock price.
Exelixis Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Exelixis' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Exelixis. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Exelixis stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Exelixis may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Exelixis and may potentially protect profits, hedge Exelixis with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 21.887 | Short Percent 0.0389 | Short Ratio 3.93 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.8 M | 50 Day MA 22.7964 |
Exelixis Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Exelixis' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Exelixis. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Exelixis can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Exelixis. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Exelixis' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Exelixis.
Exelixis Implied Volatility | 57.62 |
Exelixis' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Exelixis stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Exelixis' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Exelixis stock will not fluctuate a lot when Exelixis' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Exelixis. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Exelixis to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Exelixis because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Exelixis after-hype prediction price | USD 23.62 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Exelixis contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Exelixis will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.6% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Exelixis trading at USD 23.46, that is roughly USD 0.84 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Exelixis' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Exelixis options at the current volatility level of 57.62%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Exelixis |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Exelixis' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Exelixis After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Exelixis at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Exelixis or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Exelixis, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Exelixis Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Exelixis' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Exelixis' historical news coverage. Exelixis' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.02 and 25.22, respectively. We have considered Exelixis' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Exelixis is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Exelixis is based on 3 months time horizon.
Exelixis Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Exelixis is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Exelixis backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Exelixis, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.15 | 1.60 | 0.11 | 0.10 | 12 Events / Month | 13 Events / Month | In about 12 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
23.46 | 23.62 | 0.46 |
|
Exelixis Hype Timeline
Exelixis is currently traded for 23.46. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.11, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.1. Exelixis is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 23.62. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.46%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.15%. The volatility of related hype on Exelixis is about 237.97%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 23.36. About 90.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Exelixis was currently reported as 7.48. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.69. Exelixis had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 12 days. Check out Exelixis Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Exelixis Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Exelixis' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Exelixis' future price movements. Getting to know how Exelixis' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Exelixis may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Exelixis Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Exelixis price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Exelixis using various technical indicators. When you analyze Exelixis charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Exelixis Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Exelixis stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Exelixis, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Exelixis based on analysis of Exelixis hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Exelixis's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Exelixis's related companies. | 2016 | 2021 | 2022 | 2024 (projected) | Payables Turnover | 1.53 | 2.18 | 2.15 | 2.29 | Days Of Inventory On Hand | 211.05 | 189.79 | 87.16 | 180.3 |
Story Coverage note for Exelixis
The number of cover stories for Exelixis depends on current market conditions and Exelixis' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Exelixis is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Exelixis' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
View All Premium Stories
Exelixis Short Properties
Exelixis' future price predictability will typically decrease when Exelixis' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Exelixis often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Exelixis' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Exelixis' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 321.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 995.3 M |
Check out Exelixis Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Exelixis Stock please use our How to buy in Exelixis Stock guide.Note that the Exelixis information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Exelixis' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
Complementary Tools for Exelixis Stock analysis
When running Exelixis' price analysis, check to measure Exelixis' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Exelixis is operating at the current time. Most of Exelixis' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Exelixis' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Exelixis' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Exelixis to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Bond Analysis Evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios. | |
| Technical Analysis Check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data | |
| Portfolio Rebalancing Analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets | |
| Equity Forecasting Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum | |
| Funds Screener Find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges | |
| Options Analysis Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios | |
| Balance Of Power Check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios | |
| Latest Portfolios Quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios | |
| Stocks Directory Find actively traded stocks across global markets | |
| Stock Tickers Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites | |
| Portfolio Volatility Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk | |
| Investing Opportunities Build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences | |
| Insider Screener Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance |
Is Exelixis' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Exelixis. If investors know Exelixis will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Exelixis listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.99) | Earnings Share 0.65 | Revenue Per Share 5.753 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.131 | Return On Assets 0.0355 |
The market value of Exelixis is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Exelixis that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Exelixis' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Exelixis' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Exelixis' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Exelixis' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Exelixis' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Exelixis is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Exelixis' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.