Federal Agricultural Mortgage Stock Price Prediction
| AGM Stock | USD 194.22 0.87 0.45% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
51
Oversold | Overbought |
Federal Agricultural stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Federal Agricultural shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Federal Agricultural's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Federal Agricultural and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Federal Agricultural's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Federal Agricultural Mortgage, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Federal Agricultural's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.113 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 4.16 | EPS Estimate Current Year 17.04 | EPS Estimate Next Year 18.38 | Wall Street Target Price 227 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Federal Agricultural based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Federal stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Federal Agricultural over a specific investment horizon. Using Federal Agricultural hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Federal Agricultural Mortgage from the perspective of Federal Agricultural response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Federal Agricultural using Federal Agricultural's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Federal using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Federal Agricultural's stock price.
Federal Agricultural Implied Volatility | 46.67 |
Federal Agricultural's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Federal Agricultural Mortgage stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Federal Agricultural's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Federal Agricultural stock will not fluctuate a lot when Federal Agricultural's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Federal Agricultural. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Federal Agricultural to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Federal because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Federal Agricultural after-hype prediction price | USD 194.28 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Federal contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Federal Agricultural Mortgage will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.92% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Federal Agricultural trading at USD 194.22, that is roughly USD 5.67 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Federal Agricultural's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Federal Agricultural Mortgage options at the current volatility level of 46.67%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Federal |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Federal Agricultural's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Federal Agricultural After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Federal Agricultural at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Federal Agricultural or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Federal Agricultural, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Federal Agricultural Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Federal Agricultural's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Federal Agricultural's historical news coverage. Federal Agricultural's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 192.05 and 196.51, respectively. We have considered Federal Agricultural's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Federal Agricultural is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Federal Agricultural is based on 3 months time horizon.
Federal Agricultural Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Federal Agricultural is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Federal Agricultural backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Federal Agricultural, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.09 | 2.21 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 9 Events / Month | 4 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
194.22 | 194.28 | 0.03 |
|
Federal Agricultural Hype Timeline
On the 4th of May Federal Agricultural is traded for 194.22. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Federal is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 194.28 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price boost on the next news is projected to be 0.03%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.09%. The volatility of related hype on Federal Agricultural is about 3825.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 194.21. The company reported the last year's revenue of 351.34 M. Total Income to common stockholders was 200 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 305.24 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Federal Agricultural Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Federal Agricultural Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Federal Agricultural's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Federal Agricultural's future price movements. Getting to know how Federal Agricultural's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Federal Agricultural may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AGM-A | Federal Agricultural Mortgage | 0.00 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 4.99 | (5.89) | 14.94 | |
| AGM-PD | Federal Agricultural Mortgage | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 1.13 | (1.28) | 3.85 | |
| AGM-PG | Federal Agricultural Mortgage | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.97 | (1.85) | 6.28 | |
| AGM-PE | Federal Agricultural Mortgage | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.41 | (1.72) | 4.27 | |
| AGM-PF | Federal Agricultural Mortgage | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.99 | (0.08) | 1.69 | (1.59) | 5.32 | |
| IX | Orix Corp Ads | (0.64) | 7 per month | 1.32 | 0.05 | 2.29 | (1.89) | 8.13 | |
| FCFS | FirstCash | (0.41) | 11 per month | 2.69 | (0.01) | 2.29 | (2.05) | 17.48 | |
| SLM | SLM Corp | 0.33 | 7 per month | 1.23 | 0 | 2.42 | (2.03) | 5.20 | |
| NAVI | Navient Corp | 0.20 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.66 | (3.07) | 7.71 |
Federal Agricultural Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Federal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Federal using various technical indicators. When you analyze Federal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Federal Agricultural Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Federal Agricultural stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Federal Agricultural Mortgage, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Federal Agricultural based on analysis of Federal Agricultural hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Federal Agricultural's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Federal Agricultural's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.046 | 0.056 | 0.0361 | 0.0648 | Price To Sales Ratio | 5.58 | 3.93 | 5.89 | 6.05 |
Story Coverage note for Federal Agricultural
The number of cover stories for Federal Agricultural depends on current market conditions and Federal Agricultural's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Federal Agricultural is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Federal Agricultural's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
View All Premium Stories
Federal Agricultural Short Properties
Federal Agricultural's future price predictability will typically decrease when Federal Agricultural's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Federal Agricultural Mortgage often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Federal Agricultural's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Federal Agricultural's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 10.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.9 B |
Check out Federal Agricultural Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Federal Agricultural information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Federal Agricultural's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the FinTech Suite module to use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities.
Complementary Tools for Federal Stock analysis
When running Federal Agricultural's price analysis, check to measure Federal Agricultural's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Federal Agricultural is operating at the current time. Most of Federal Agricultural's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Federal Agricultural's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Federal Agricultural's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Federal Agricultural to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Alpha Finder Use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk | |
| Global Correlations Find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets | |
| ETFs Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world | |
| Analyst Advice Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories | |
| Equity Valuation Check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data | |
| Efficient Frontier Plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market. | |
| FinTech Suite Use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities | |
| Portfolio File Import Quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format | |
| Risk-Return Analysis View associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume |
Is Federal Agricultural's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Federal Agricultural. If investors know Federal will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Federal Agricultural listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.113 | Dividend Share 4.4 | Earnings Share 15.81 | Revenue Per Share 32.005 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.115 |
The market value of Federal Agricultural is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Federal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Federal Agricultural's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Federal Agricultural's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Federal Agricultural's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Federal Agricultural's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Federal Agricultural's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Federal Agricultural is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Federal Agricultural's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.