Alma Media (Finland) Market Value
| ALMA Stock | EUR 9.90 0.20 2.06% |
| Symbol | Alma |
Alma Media 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Alma Media's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Alma Media.
| 03/31/2024 |
| 04/30/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Alma Media on March 31, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Alma Media Oyj or generate 0.0% return on investment in Alma Media over 30 days. Alma Media is related to or competes with Tokmanni Group, Kemira Oyj, Elisa Oyj, Valmet Oyj, and Orion Oyj. Alma Media Oyj, a media company, provides digital and publishing services in Finland and internationally More
Alma Media Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Alma Media's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Alma Media Oyj upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.11 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 4.78 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.62) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.83 |
Alma Media Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Alma Media's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Alma Media's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Alma Media historical prices to predict the future Alma Media's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.032 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0377 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.55) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alma Media's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Alma Media Oyj Backtested Returns
We consider Alma Media not too volatile. Alma Media Oyj secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0403, which signifies that the company had a 0.0403% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Alma Media Oyj, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm Alma Media's Downside Deviation of 1.11, risk adjusted performance of 0.032, and Mean Deviation of 0.7538 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0402%. Alma Media has a performance score of 3 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0628, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Alma Media are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Alma Media is likely to outperform the market. Alma Media Oyj right now shows a risk of 1.0%. Please confirm Alma Media Oyj coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, sortino ratio, as well as the relationship between the standard deviation and total risk alpha , to decide if Alma Media Oyj will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.06 |
Very weak reverse predictability
Alma Media Oyj has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Alma Media time series from 31st of March 2024 to 15th of April 2024 and 15th of April 2024 to 30th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Alma Media Oyj price movement. The serial correlation of -0.06 indicates that barely 6.0% of current Alma Media price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.06 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.15 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.02 |
Alma Media Oyj lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Alma Media stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Alma Media's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Alma Media returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Alma Media has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Alma Media regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Alma Media stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Alma Media stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Alma Media stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Alma Media Lagged Returns
When evaluating Alma Media's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Alma Media stock have on its future price. Alma Media autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Alma Media autocorrelation shows the relationship between Alma Media stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Alma Media Oyj.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Alma Media in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Alma Media's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Alma Media options trading.
Pair Trading with Alma Media
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Alma Media position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Alma Media will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to Alma Media could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Alma Media when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Alma Media - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Alma Media Oyj to buy it.
The correlation of Alma Media is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Alma Media moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Alma Media Oyj moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Alma Media can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Alma Media Correlation, Alma Media Volatility and Alma Media Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Alma Media. You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Complementary Tools for Alma Stock analysis
When running Alma Media's price analysis, check to measure Alma Media's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alma Media is operating at the current time. Most of Alma Media's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alma Media's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alma Media's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alma Media to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Alma Media technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.