Green Brick Partners Stock Price Prediction
| GRBK Stock | USD 53.81 0.26 0.48% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
45
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.328 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.7 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.41 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.98 | Wall Street Target Price 57.5 |
Using Green Brick hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Green Brick Partners from the perspective of Green Brick response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Green Brick using Green Brick's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Green using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Green Brick's stock price.
Green Brick Short Interest
An investor who is long Green Brick may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Green Brick and may potentially protect profits, hedge Green Brick with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 50.4155 | Short Percent 0.0703 | Short Ratio 6.09 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.6 M | 50 Day MA 55.5686 |
Green Brick Partners Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Green Brick's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Green. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Green can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Green Brick Partners. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Green Brick's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Green Brick.
Green Brick Implied Volatility | 41.74 |
Green Brick's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Green Brick Partners stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Green Brick's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Green Brick stock will not fluctuate a lot when Green Brick's options are near their expiration.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Green Brick to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Green because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Green Brick after-hype prediction price | USD 53.8 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Green |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Green Brick's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Green Brick After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Green Brick at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Green Brick or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Green Brick, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Green Brick Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Green Brick's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Green Brick's historical news coverage. Green Brick's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 52.09 and 55.51, respectively. We have considered Green Brick's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Green Brick is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Green Brick Partners is based on 3 months time horizon.
Green Brick Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Green Brick is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Green Brick backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Green Brick, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 1.71 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 9 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
53.81 | 53.80 | 0.02 |
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Green Brick Hype Timeline
Green Brick Partners is currently traded for 53.81. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.11. Green is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 53.8. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.02%. The volatility of related hype on Green Brick is about 31.13%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 53.70. About 81.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 2.0. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Green Brick Partners has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.76. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 6.59. The firm had not issued any dividends in recent years. Green Brick had 1532:1000 split on the 24th of September 2014. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Green Brick Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Green Brick Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Green Brick's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Green Brick's future price movements. Getting to know how Green Brick's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Green Brick may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TMHC | Taylor Morn Home | 0.86 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 3.20 | (2.95) | 8.08 | |
| MHO | MI Homes | 0.96 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 4.08 | (4.20) | 10.93 | |
| HOV | Hovnanian Enterprises | (18.30) | 9 per month | 3.81 | 0.02 | 6.76 | (5.38) | 20.34 |
Green Brick Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Green price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Green using various technical indicators. When you analyze Green charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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About Green Brick Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Green Brick stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Green Brick Partners, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Green Brick based on analysis of Green Brick hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Green Brick's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Green Brick's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.001218 | 0.001157 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.33 | 1.39 |
Story Coverage note for Green Brick
The number of cover stories for Green Brick depends on current market conditions and Green Brick's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Green Brick is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Green Brick's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Green Brick Short Properties
Green Brick's future price predictability will typically decrease when Green Brick's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Green Brick Partners often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Green Brick's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Green Brick's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 45.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 199.5 M |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Green Stock
When determining whether Green Brick Partners is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Green Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Green Brick Partners Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Green Brick Partners Stock:Check out Green Brick Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.
Is Household Durables space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Green Brick. If investors know Green will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Green Brick listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.328 | Earnings Share 6.59 | Revenue Per Share 39.229 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) | Return On Assets 0.127 |
The market value of Green Brick Partners is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Green that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Green Brick's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Green Brick's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Green Brick's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Green Brick's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Green Brick's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Green Brick is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Green Brick's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.