Harley Davidson Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| HOG Stock | USD 34.69 0.58 1.70% |
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Harley Davidson is 'Hold'. Macroaxis provides Harley Davidson buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding HOG positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Harley Davidson's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Harley Davidson's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value 36.64 | Target Price 44.5 | Hype Value 34.69 | Market Value 34.69 | Naive Value 35.88 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Harley Davidson given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Harley Davidson. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Harley Davidson, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Harley |
Execute Harley Davidson Buy or Sell Advice
The Harley recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Harley Davidson. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Harley Davidson or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Harley Davidson's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Hold
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Stale | Details | |
Current Valuation | Undervalued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Follows the market closely | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Interested | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unavailable | Details |
Harley Davidson Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| Harley Davidson generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 90.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 20th of March 2024 Harley Davidson paid $ 0.1725 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 6234 shares by Luke Mansfield of Harley Davidson subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Harley Davidson Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Harley Davidson's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Harley Davidson's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Harley Davidson daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Harley Davidson price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Harley Davidson returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Harley Davidson.
| Mean Return | 0.05 | Value At Risk | -3.22 | Potential Upside | 3.22 | Standard Deviation | 2.83 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Harley Davidson historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Harley Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Harley Davidson is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Harley Davidson backward and forwards among themselves. Harley Davidson's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Harley Davidson's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Geode Capital Management, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 2 M | Bank Of New York Mellon Corp | 2023-12-31 | 1.5 M | Norges Bank | 2023-12-31 | 1.4 M | D. E. Shaw & Co Lp | 2023-09-30 | 1.4 M | Brown Advisory Holdings Inc | 2024-03-31 | 1.3 M | Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc | 2023-12-31 | 1.3 M | American Century Companies Inc | 2023-12-31 | 1.1 M | Js Capital Management Llc | 2023-12-31 | 1000 K | Northern Trust Corp | 2023-12-31 | 989.5 K | Vanguard Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 13 M | H Partners Management, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 11.8 M |
Harley Davidson Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change To Inventory | (47.6M) | 80.9M | (207.6M) | (254.2M) | 21.3M | 22.3M | |
| Change In Cash | (354.4M) | 2.5B | (1.4B) | (446.0M) | 69.8M | 63.6M | |
| Free Cash Flow | 686.8M | 1.0B | 855.5M | 396.8M | 547.5M | 499.5M | |
| Depreciation | 232.5M | 185.7M | 165.2M | 151.9M | 158.1M | 167.0M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 215.2M | 833.1M | 195.2M | 7.3M | (187.0M) | (177.6M) | |
| Capital Expenditures | 181.4M | 131.1M | 120.2M | 151.7M | 207.4M | 192.6M | |
| Net Income | 423.6M | 1.3M | 650.0M | 739.2M | 706.6M | 500.6M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 905.4M | 3.4B | 2.0B | 1.6B | 1.6B | 1.7B | |
| Dividends Paid | 237.2M | 68.1M | 92.4M | 93.2M | 96.3M | 135.1M | |
| Investments | (337.6M) | 42.8M | (459.4M) | (773.0M) | (512.3M) | (537.9M) | |
| Net Borrowings | 381.4M | 925.7M | (2.0B) | 75.1M | 67.6M | 64.3M | |
| Change To Netincome | 199.1M | 1.2B | 325.7M | (66.5M) | (76.5M) | (72.7M) |
Harley Davidson Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Harley Davidson or Automobiles sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Harley Davidson's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Harley stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.07 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.52 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.75 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.01 |
Harley Davidson Volatility Alert
Harley Davidson shows above-average downside volatility for the selected time horizon. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Harley Davidson's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Harley Davidson's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Harley Davidson Implied Volatility
Harley Davidson's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Harley Davidson stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Harley Davidson's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Harley Davidson stock will not fluctuate a lot when Harley Davidson's options are near their expiration.
Harley Davidson Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Harley Davidson's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Harley Davidson's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Harley Davidson and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Harley Davidson or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Harley Davidson's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Harley Davidson by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Harley Davidson to competition |
| Fundamentals | Harley Davidson | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.19 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0382 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.11 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.16 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 10.89 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 134.51 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 0.92 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 90.12 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 7.08 M | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 38.00 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 1.64 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 0.92 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 5.84 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 1.84 B | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 896.36 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 706.59 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 1.43 B | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 11.83 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 7.2 B | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 2.52 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 1.36 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 24.82 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 754.89 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 3.06 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 4.55 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 4.21 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 43.25 | |
| Number Of Employees | 6.4 K | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 1.51 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 4.67 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 12.14 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 3.1 B | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 1.78 B | 1.48 B |
Note: Disposition of 6234 shares by Luke Mansfield of Harley Davidson subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Harley Davidson Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Harley . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
About Harley Davidson Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Harley Davidson? Buying financial instruments such as Harley Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Short and Long Term Debt Total | 6.9B | 6.9B | 7.2B | 7.6B | Total Assets | 11.1B | 11.5B | 12.1B | 12.7B |
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In addition to having Harley Davidson in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
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Check out Harley Davidson Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. For more detail on how to invest in Harley Stock please use our How to Invest in Harley Davidson guide.You can also try the Cryptocurrency Center module to build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency.
Complementary Tools for Harley Stock analysis
When running Harley Davidson's price analysis, check to measure Harley Davidson's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Harley Davidson is operating at the current time. Most of Harley Davidson's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Harley Davidson's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Harley Davidson's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Harley Davidson to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Harley Davidson's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Harley Davidson. If investors know Harley will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Harley Davidson listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.16) | Dividend Share 0.668 | Earnings Share 4.55 | Revenue Per Share 41.299 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) |
The market value of Harley Davidson is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Harley that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Harley Davidson's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Harley Davidson's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Harley Davidson's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Harley Davidson's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Harley Davidson's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Harley Davidson is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Harley Davidson's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.