Marriott International Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 168.24
MAR Stock | USD 237.84 0.11 0.05% |
Closest to current price Marriott long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Marriott |
Marriott International Target Price Odds to finish over 168.24
The tendency of Marriott Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 168.24 in 90 days |
237.84 | 90 days | 168.24 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Marriott International to stay above $ 168.24 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Marriott International probability density function shows the probability of Marriott Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Marriott International price to stay between $ 168.24 and its current price of $237.84 at the end of the 90-day period is about 13.65 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Marriott International has a beta of 0.0216. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Marriott International average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Marriott International will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Marriott International has an alpha of 0.0128, implying that it can generate a 0.0128 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Marriott International Price Density |
Price |
Predictive Modules for Marriott International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Marriott International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Marriott International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Marriott International Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Marriott International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Marriott International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Marriott International, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Marriott International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.85 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
Marriott International Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Marriott International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Marriott International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.Marriott International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
The company has 12.76 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 9.81, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Marriott International has a current ratio of 0.51, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Marriott International until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Marriott International's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Marriott International sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Marriott to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Marriott International's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
Marriott International has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
About 63.0% of Marriott International shares are owned by institutional investors | |
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Owners of 1 Renaissance Center tower considering uses besides office |
Marriott International Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Marriott Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Marriott International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Marriott International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 302.9 M | |
Cash And Short Term Investments | 338 M |
Marriott International Technical Analysis
Marriott International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Marriott Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Marriott International. In general, you should focus on analyzing Marriott Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Marriott International Predictive Forecast Models
Marriott International's time-series forecasting models is one of many Marriott International's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Marriott International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Marriott International
Checking the ongoing alerts about Marriott International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Marriott International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Marriott International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
The company has 12.76 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 9.81, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Marriott International has a current ratio of 0.51, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Marriott International until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Marriott International's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Marriott International sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Marriott to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Marriott International's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
Marriott International has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
About 63.0% of Marriott International shares are owned by institutional investors | |
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Owners of 1 Renaissance Center tower considering uses besides office |
Check out Marriott International Backtesting, Marriott International Valuation, Marriott International Correlation, Marriott International Hype Analysis, Marriott International Volatility, Marriott International History as well as Marriott International Performance. To learn how to invest in Marriott Stock, please use our How to Invest in Marriott International guide.Note that the Marriott International information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Marriott International's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.
Complementary Tools for Marriott Stock analysis
When running Marriott International's price analysis, check to measure Marriott International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Marriott International is operating at the current time. Most of Marriott International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Marriott International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Marriott International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Marriott International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Marriott International's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Marriott International. If investors know Marriott will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Marriott International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.21) | Dividend Share 2.08 | Earnings Share 9.68 | Revenue Per Share 21.49 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.052 |
The market value of Marriott International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Marriott that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Marriott International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Marriott International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Marriott International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Marriott International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Marriott International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Marriott International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Marriott International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.