Marriott International Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average
MAR Stock | USD 240.84 1.10 0.45% |
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Marriott International on the next trading day is expected to be 246.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.58 and the sum of the absolute errors of 187.63. Marriott Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Marriott International stock prices and determine the direction of Marriott International's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Marriott International's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Marriott International to cross-verify your projections. Marriott |
Most investors in Marriott International cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Marriott International's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Marriott International's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for Marriott International is based on a synthetically constructed Marriott Internationaldaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time. Marriott International 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Marriott International on the next trading day is expected to be 246.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.58, mean absolute percentage error of 34.88, and the sum of the absolute errors of 187.63.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Marriott Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Marriott International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Marriott International Stock Forecast Pattern
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Marriott International Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Marriott International's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Marriott International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 244.91 and 247.52, respectively. We have considered Marriott International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Marriott International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Marriott International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 84.905 |
Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.6585 |
MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.5763 |
MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0187 |
SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 187.627 |
Predictive Modules for Marriott International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Marriott International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Marriott International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Marriott International
For every potential investor in Marriott, whether a beginner or expert, Marriott International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Marriott Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Marriott. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Marriott International's price trends.Marriott International Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Marriott International stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Marriott International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Marriott International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Risk & Return | Correlation |
Marriott International Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Marriott International's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Marriott International's current price.Cycle Indicators | ||
Math Operators | ||
Math Transform | ||
Momentum Indicators | ||
Overlap Studies | ||
Pattern Recognition | ||
Price Transform | ||
Statistic Functions | ||
Volatility Indicators | ||
Volume Indicators |
Marriott International Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Marriott International stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Marriott International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Marriott International stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Marriott International entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Marriott International Risk Indicators
The analysis of Marriott International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Marriott International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting marriott stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Mean Deviation | 0.9152 | |||
Semi Deviation | 1.52 | |||
Standard Deviation | 1.31 | |||
Variance | 1.71 | |||
Downside Variance | 2.47 | |||
Semi Variance | 2.3 | |||
Expected Short fall | (0.86) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Marriott International to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Marriott Stock, please use our How to Invest in Marriott International guide.Note that the Marriott International information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Marriott International's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
Complementary Tools for Marriott Stock analysis
When running Marriott International's price analysis, check to measure Marriott International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Marriott International is operating at the current time. Most of Marriott International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Marriott International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Marriott International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Marriott International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Marriott International's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Marriott International. If investors know Marriott will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Marriott International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Marriott International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Marriott that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Marriott International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Marriott International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Marriott International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Marriott International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Marriott International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Marriott International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Marriott International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.