Forestar Group Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 31.61
| FOR Stock | USD 33.57 1.24 3.84% |
Closest to current price Forestar long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Forestar |
Forestar Target Price Odds to finish over 31.61
The tendency of Forestar Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 31.61 in 90 days |
| 33.57 | 90 days | 31.61 | about 83.65 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Forestar to stay above $ 31.61 in 90 days from now is about 83.65 (This Forestar Group probability density function shows the probability of Forestar Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Forestar Group price to stay between $ 31.61 and its current price of $33.57 at the end of the 90-day period is about 20.76 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.39 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Forestar will likely underperform. Additionally Forestar Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Forestar Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Forestar
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Forestar Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Forestar's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Forestar Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Forestar is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Forestar's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Forestar Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Forestar within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.06 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 2.39 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.01 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0 |
Forestar Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Forestar for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Forestar Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company has 695 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.62, which is OK given its current industry classification. Forestar Group has a current ratio of 0.91, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Forestar until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Forestar's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Forestar Group sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Forestar to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Forestar's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 63.0% of Forestar shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Forestar Group CEO buys 99,991 in company stock |
Forestar Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Forestar Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Forestar's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Forestar's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 50.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 616 M |
Forestar Technical Analysis
Forestar's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Forestar Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Forestar Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Forestar Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Forestar Predictive Forecast Models
Forestar's time-series forecasting models is one of many Forestar's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Forestar's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Forestar Group
Checking the ongoing alerts about Forestar for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Forestar Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company has 695 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.62, which is OK given its current industry classification. Forestar Group has a current ratio of 0.91, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Forestar until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Forestar's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Forestar Group sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Forestar to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Forestar's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 63.0% of Forestar shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Forestar Group CEO buys 99,991 in company stock |
Check out Forestar Backtesting, Forestar Valuation, Forestar Correlation, Forestar Hype Analysis, Forestar Volatility, Forestar History as well as Forestar Performance. You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.
Complementary Tools for Forestar Stock analysis
When running Forestar's price analysis, check to measure Forestar's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Forestar is operating at the current time. Most of Forestar's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Forestar's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Forestar's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Forestar to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Forestar's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Forestar. If investors know Forestar will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Forestar listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.652 | Earnings Share 4.03 | Revenue Per Share 31.117 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.107 | Return On Assets 0.0625 |
The market value of Forestar Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Forestar that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Forestar's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Forestar's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Forestar's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Forestar's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Forestar's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Forestar is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Forestar's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.