Forestar Group Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
| FOR Stock | USD 31.30 2.86 8.37% |
Considering the 90-day investment horizon and your above-average risk tolerance, our recommendation regarding Forestar Group is 'Cautious Hold'. Macroaxis provides Forestar buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding Forestar positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Forestar's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Forestar's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value 33.11 | Target Price 31.33 | Hype Value 34.19 | Market Value 31.3 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Forestar Group given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Forestar. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Forestar Group, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Forestar |
Execute Forestar Buy or Sell Advice
The Forestar recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Forestar Group. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Forestar Group or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Forestar's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
 |  |
Cautious Hold
Market Performance | Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Fairly Valued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Hyperactively responds to market trends | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Alarmed | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Strong Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Possible Manipulator | Details |
Forestar Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
| The company has 695 M in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.62, which is OK given its current industry classification. Forestar Group has a current ratio of 0.91, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Forestar until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Forestar's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Forestar Group sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Forestar to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Forestar's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 64.0% of Forestar shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from seekingalpha.com: |
Forestar Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Forestar's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Forestar's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Forestar daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Forestar Group price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Forestar returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Forestar.
| Mean Return | 0.04 | Value At Risk | -3.79 | Potential Upside | 2.96 | Standard Deviation | 2.50 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Forestar historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Forestar Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Forestar is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Forestar Group backward and forwards among themselves. Forestar's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Forestar's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
| Shares | Nuveen Asset Management, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 353.8 K | American Century Companies Inc | 2023-12-31 | 299.5 K | Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts | 2023-12-31 | 274.9 K | Jacobs Levy Equity Management, Inc. | 2023-09-30 | 261.1 K | Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership | 2023-12-31 | 245.2 K | Prudential Financial Inc | 2023-12-31 | 238.2 K | Venator Capital Management Ltd. | 2023-09-30 | 211 K | Aqr Capital Management Llc | 2023-12-31 | 198.6 K | Northern Trust Corp | 2023-12-31 | 198.5 K | Vanguard Group Inc | 2023-12-31 | 2.8 M | Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc. | 2023-12-31 | 2 M |
Forestar Cash Flow Accounts
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Change In Cash | 11.5M | (240.7M) | 111.2M | 351.2M | 403.9M | 424.1M | |
| Free Cash Flow | (169M) | (304.7M) | 105.2M | 362.8M | 326.5M | 342.8M | |
| Depreciation | 9.4M | 4.9M | 2.7M | 3M | 3.5M | 3.3M | |
| Other Non Cash Items | 200K | 18.5M | 8.1M | 22.4M | 25.8M | 27.0M | |
| Capital Expenditures | 600K | 1.6M | 3.5M | 1.3M | 1.2M | 1.1M | |
| Net Income | 61.7M | 110.5M | 178.8M | 166.9M | 191.9M | 201.5M | |
| End Period Cash Flow | 394.3M | 153.6M | 264.8M | 616M | 708.4M | 743.8M | |
| Change To Netincome | 26.2M | 40.6M | 23.9M | 40.5M | 46.6M | 40.4M | |
| Investments | 5M | 2.6M | 1.6M | 300K | 345K | 327.8K | |
| Net Borrowings | 350M | 181.1M | 36M | (12.5M) | (14.4M) | (13.7M) |
Forestar Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Forestar or Real Estate Management & Development sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Forestar's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Forestar stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.08 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 2.38 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.55 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.0063 |
Forestar Volatility Alert
Forestar Group currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of -0.01 and Jensen Alpha of -0.08. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Forestar's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Forestar's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Forestar Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Forestar's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Forestar's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Forestar and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Forestar or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Forestar's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Forestar by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Forestar to competition |
| Fundamentals | Forestar | Peer Average |
| Return On Equity | 0.14 | -0.31 |
| Return On Asset | 0.0631 | -0.14 |
| Profit Margin | 0.12 % | (1.27) % |
| Operating Margin | 0.15 % | (5.51) % |
| Current Valuation | 2.1 B | 16.62 B |
| Shares Outstanding | 49.91 M | 571.82 M |
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 63.51 % | 10.09 % |
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 36.86 % | 39.21 % |
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 479.22 K | 4.71 M |
| Price To Earning | 8.42 X | 28.72 X |
| Price To Book | 1.33 X | 9.51 X |
| Price To Sales | 1.23 X | 11.42 X |
| Revenue | 1.44 B | 9.43 B |
| Gross Profit | 323.5 M | 27.38 B |
| EBITDA | 207.8 M | 3.9 B |
| Net Income | 166.9 M | 570.98 M |
| Cash And Equivalents | 616 M | 2.7 B |
| Cash Per Share | 2.94 X | 5.01 X |
| Total Debt | 695 M | 5.32 B |
| Debt To Equity | 0.62 % | 48.70 % |
| Current Ratio | 0.93 X | 2.16 X |
| Book Value Per Share | 28.21 X | 1.93 K |
| Cash Flow From Operations | 364.1 M | 971.22 M |
| Short Ratio | 1.94 X | 4.00 X |
| Earnings Per Share | 3.67 X | 3.12 X |
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 3.50 X | 4.89 X |
| Target Price | 41.33 | |
| Number Of Employees | 329 | 18.84 K |
| Beta | 1.7 | -0.15 |
| Market Capitalization | 1.84 B | 19.03 B |
| Total Asset | 2.47 B | 29.47 B |
| Retained Earnings | 674.8 M | 9.33 B |
| Working Capital | 382.3 M | 1.48 B |
Note: Acquisition by G Ringler of 1207 shares of Forestar subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Forestar Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Forestar . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
| Accumulation Distribution | 82792.76 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.87) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.92 | |||
| Day Median Price | 32.38 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 32.02 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.51) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (2.86) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 41.82 |
About Forestar Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Forestar Group? Buying financial instruments such as Forestar Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Short and Long Term Debt Total | 706M | 695M | 799.3M | 839.2M | Total Assets | 2.3B | 2.5B | 2.8B | 3.0B |
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Forestar in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
Run Preferred Stock ETFs Thematic Idea Now
Preferred Stock ETFs
ETF themes focus on helping investors to gain exposure to a broad range of assets, diversify, and lower overall costs. The Preferred Stock ETFs theme has 15 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Preferred Stock ETFs Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out Forestar Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.
Complementary Tools for Forestar Stock analysis
When running Forestar's price analysis, check to measure Forestar's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Forestar is operating at the current time. Most of Forestar's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Forestar's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Forestar's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Forestar to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Forestar's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Forestar. If investors know Forestar will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Forestar listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.823 | Earnings Share 3.67 | Revenue Per Share 30.503 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.412 | Return On Assets 0.0631 |
The market value of Forestar Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Forestar that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Forestar's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Forestar's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Forestar's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Forestar's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Forestar's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Forestar is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Forestar's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.