Spirit Airlines Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| SAVE Stock | USD 3.45 0.07 1.99% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Spirit Airlines on the next trading day is expected to be 3.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.69. Spirit Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Spirit Airlines stock prices and determine the direction of Spirit Airlines's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Spirit Airlines' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Spirit |
Open Interest Against 2024-06-14 Spirit Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Spirit Airlines' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Spirit Airlines' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Spirit Airlines stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Spirit Airlines' open interest, investors have to compare it to Spirit Airlines' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Spirit Airlines is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Spirit. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Spirit Airlines cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Spirit Airlines' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Spirit Airlines' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Spirit Airlines is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Spirit Airlines value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Spirit Airlines Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 13th of June 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Spirit Airlines on the next trading day is expected to be 3.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.69.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Spirit Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Spirit Airlines' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Spirit Airlines Stock Forecast Pattern
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Spirit Airlines Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Spirit Airlines' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Spirit Airlines' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 8.14, respectively. We have considered Spirit Airlines' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Spirit Airlines stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Spirit Airlines stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.7538 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1402 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0351 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.6913 |
Predictive Modules for Spirit Airlines
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Spirit Airlines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Spirit Airlines' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Spirit Airlines
For every potential investor in Spirit, whether a beginner or expert, Spirit Airlines' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Spirit Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Spirit. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Spirit Airlines' price trends.Spirit Airlines Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Spirit Airlines stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Spirit Airlines could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Spirit Airlines by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Spirit Airlines Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Spirit Airlines' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Spirit Airlines' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Spirit Airlines Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Spirit Airlines stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Spirit Airlines shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Spirit Airlines stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Spirit Airlines entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 199364.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.44) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 3.46 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 3.46 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.04) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.07) |
Spirit Airlines Risk Indicators
The analysis of Spirit Airlines' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Spirit Airlines' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting spirit stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.48 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.83 | |||
| Variance | 23.31 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Spirit Stock
When determining whether Spirit Airlines is a strong investment it is important to analyze Spirit Airlines' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Spirit Airlines' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Spirit Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Spirit Airlines to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Spirit Stock refer to our How to Trade Spirit Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.
Is Passenger Airlines space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Spirit Airlines. If investors know Spirit will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Spirit Airlines listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.14) | Earnings Share (4.45) | Revenue Per Share 48.322 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) | Return On Assets (0.03) |
The market value of Spirit Airlines is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Spirit that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Spirit Airlines' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Spirit Airlines' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Spirit Airlines' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Spirit Airlines' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Spirit Airlines' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Spirit Airlines is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Spirit Airlines' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.