Kalbe Farma Pink Sheet Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| PTKFY Stock | USD 17.03 0.00 0.00% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Kalbe Farma Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 17.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.02. Kalbe Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Kalbe Farma stock prices and determine the direction of Kalbe Farma Tbk's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Kalbe Farma's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kalbe Farma to cross-verify your projections. Kalbe |
Most investors in Kalbe Farma cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Kalbe Farma's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Kalbe Farma's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Kalbe Farma works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. Kalbe Farma Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 18th of May 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Kalbe Farma Tbk on the next trading day is expected to be 17.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07, mean absolute percentage error of 0.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.02.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Kalbe Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Kalbe Farma's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Kalbe Farma Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Kalbe Farma | Kalbe Farma Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Kalbe Farma Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Kalbe Farma's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Kalbe Farma's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.76 and 19.30, respectively. We have considered Kalbe Farma's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Kalbe Farma pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Kalbe Farma pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0681 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0681 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0039 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.02 |
Predictive Modules for Kalbe Farma
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Kalbe Farma Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Kalbe Farma's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Kalbe Farma
For every potential investor in Kalbe, whether a beginner or expert, Kalbe Farma's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Kalbe Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Kalbe. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Kalbe Farma's price trends.Kalbe Farma Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Kalbe Farma pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Kalbe Farma could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Kalbe Farma by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Kalbe Farma Tbk Technical and Predictive Analytics
The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Kalbe Farma's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Kalbe Farma's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Kalbe Farma Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Kalbe Farma pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Kalbe Farma shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Kalbe Farma pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Kalbe Farma Tbk entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Kalbe Farma Risk Indicators
The analysis of Kalbe Farma's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Kalbe Farma's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting kalbe pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5691 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.2 | |||
| Variance | 4.86 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.| C | Citigroup | |
| CRM | Salesforce | |
| MSFT | Microsoft |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Kalbe Farma to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Kalbe Farma Tbk information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Kalbe Farma's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.
Complementary Tools for Kalbe Pink Sheet analysis
When running Kalbe Farma's price analysis, check to measure Kalbe Farma's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Kalbe Farma is operating at the current time. Most of Kalbe Farma's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Kalbe Farma's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Kalbe Farma's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Kalbe Farma to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Price Transformation Use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets | |
| Idea Breakdown Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes | |
| Crypto Correlations Use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins | |
| Stock Tickers Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites | |
| USA ETFs Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA |