LOreal SA Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| OR Stock | EUR 449.25 2.85 0.63% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of LOreal SA on the next trading day is expected to be 449.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.90 and the sum of the absolute errors of 234.24. LOreal Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast LOreal SA stock prices and determine the direction of LOreal SA's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of LOreal SA's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of LOreal SA to cross-verify your projections. LOreal |
Most investors in LOreal SA cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the LOreal SA's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets LOreal SA's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for LOreal SA works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. LOreal SA Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 5th of June
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of LOreal SA on the next trading day is expected to be 449.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.90, mean absolute percentage error of 25.57, and the sum of the absolute errors of 234.24.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict LOreal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that LOreal SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
LOreal SA Stock Forecast Pattern
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LOreal SA Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting LOreal SA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. LOreal SA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 448.52 and 450.72, respectively. We have considered LOreal SA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of LOreal SA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent LOreal SA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.4774 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.904 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.009 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 234.2399 |
Predictive Modules for LOreal SA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as LOreal SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of LOreal SA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for LOreal SA
For every potential investor in LOreal, whether a beginner or expert, LOreal SA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. LOreal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in LOreal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying LOreal SA's price trends.LOreal SA Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with LOreal SA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of LOreal SA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing LOreal SA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
LOreal SA Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of LOreal SA's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of LOreal SA's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
LOreal SA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how LOreal SA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading LOreal SA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying LOreal SA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify LOreal SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 3678.92 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.31) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 450.95 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 450.38 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (3.12) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (2.85) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 53.79 |
LOreal SA Risk Indicators
The analysis of LOreal SA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in LOreal SA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting loreal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.793 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8711 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.09 | |||
| Variance | 1.19 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.8138 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7589 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.93) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.| MSFT | Microsoft | |
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| GOOG | Alphabet Inc Class C |
Other Information on Investing in LOreal Stock
LOreal SA financial ratios help investors to determine whether LOreal Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in LOreal with respect to the benefits of owning LOreal SA security.