Obsidian Energy Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| OBE Stock | CAD 10.42 0.04 0.39% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Obsidian Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 10.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.82. Obsidian Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Obsidian Energy stock prices and determine the direction of Obsidian Energy's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Obsidian Energy's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Obsidian Energy's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Obsidian Energy's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Obsidian Energy fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Obsidian Energy to cross-verify your projections. Obsidian |
Most investors in Obsidian Energy cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Obsidian Energy's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Obsidian Energy's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Obsidian Energy - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Obsidian Energy prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Obsidian Energy price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Obsidian Energy. Obsidian Energy Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Obsidian Energy on the next trading day is expected to be 10.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.82.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Obsidian Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Obsidian Energy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Obsidian Energy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Obsidian Energy | Obsidian Energy Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Obsidian Energy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Obsidian Energy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Obsidian Energy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.20 and 12.52, respectively. We have considered Obsidian Energy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Obsidian Energy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Obsidian Energy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0133 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2004 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0184 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.8248 |
Predictive Modules for Obsidian Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Obsidian Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Obsidian Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Obsidian Energy
For every potential investor in Obsidian, whether a beginner or expert, Obsidian Energy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Obsidian Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Obsidian. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Obsidian Energy's price trends.Obsidian Energy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Obsidian Energy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Obsidian Energy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Obsidian Energy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Obsidian Energy Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Obsidian Energy's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Obsidian Energy's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Obsidian Energy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Obsidian Energy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Obsidian Energy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Obsidian Energy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Obsidian Energy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Obsidian Energy Risk Indicators
The analysis of Obsidian Energy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Obsidian Energy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting obsidian stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.75 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.93 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.19 | |||
| Variance | 4.81 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.42 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.71 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.93) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Obsidian Energy to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Obsidian Stock, please use our How to Invest in Obsidian Energy guide.Note that the Obsidian Energy information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Obsidian Energy's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.
Complementary Tools for Obsidian Stock analysis
When running Obsidian Energy's price analysis, check to measure Obsidian Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Obsidian Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Obsidian Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Obsidian Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Obsidian Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Obsidian Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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