Obsidian Energy Stock Market Value
| OBE Stock | CAD 11.04 0.12 1.10% |
| Symbol | Obsidian |
Obsidian Energy Price To Book Ratio
Obsidian Energy 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Obsidian Energy's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Obsidian Energy.
| 04/08/2024 |
| 05/08/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Obsidian Energy on April 8, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Obsidian Energy or generate 0.0% return on investment in Obsidian Energy over 30 days. Obsidian Energy is related to or competes with Baselode Energy, Isoenergy, and Global Atomic. Obsidian Energy Ltd. primarily focuses on the exploration, production, and development of oil and natural gas properties... More
Obsidian Energy Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Obsidian Energy's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Obsidian Energy upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.93 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1359 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.33 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.97) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.45 |
Obsidian Energy Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Obsidian Energy's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Obsidian Energy's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Obsidian Energy historical prices to predict the future Obsidian Energy's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1156 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2827 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1219 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1464 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.3502 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Obsidian Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Obsidian Energy Backtested Returns
Obsidian Energy appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. Obsidian Energy maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.18, which implies the firm had a 0.18% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Obsidian Energy, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please evaluate Obsidian Energy's Semi Deviation of 1.77, risk adjusted performance of 0.1156, and Coefficient Of Variation of 575.11 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Obsidian Energy holds a performance score of 13. The company holds a Beta of 1.01, which implies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Obsidian Energy returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Obsidian Energy is expected to follow. Please check Obsidian Energy's skewness, day typical price, and the relationship between the downside variance and daily balance of power , to make a quick decision on whether Obsidian Energy's historical price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.81 |
Very good predictability
Obsidian Energy has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Obsidian Energy time series from 8th of April 2024 to 23rd of April 2024 and 23rd of April 2024 to 8th of May 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Obsidian Energy price movement. The serial correlation of 0.81 indicates that around 81.0% of current Obsidian Energy price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.81 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.06 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.28 |
Obsidian Energy lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Obsidian Energy stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Obsidian Energy's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Obsidian Energy returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Obsidian Energy has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Obsidian Energy regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Obsidian Energy stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Obsidian Energy stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Obsidian Energy stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Obsidian Energy Lagged Returns
When evaluating Obsidian Energy's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Obsidian Energy stock have on its future price. Obsidian Energy autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Obsidian Energy autocorrelation shows the relationship between Obsidian Energy stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Obsidian Energy.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Obsidian Energy Correlation, Obsidian Energy Volatility and Obsidian Energy Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Obsidian Energy. To learn how to invest in Obsidian Stock, please use our How to Invest in Obsidian Energy guide.Note that the Obsidian Energy information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Obsidian Energy's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Complementary Tools for Obsidian Stock analysis
When running Obsidian Energy's price analysis, check to measure Obsidian Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Obsidian Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Obsidian Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Obsidian Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Obsidian Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Obsidian Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Obsidian Energy technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.