KraneShares CSI Etf Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| KWEB Etf | 21.41 0.79 3.83% |
KraneShares |
Most investors in KraneShares CSI cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, etf markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the KraneShares CSI's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets KraneShares CSI's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
KraneShares CSI simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for KraneShares CSI China are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as KraneShares CSI China prices get older. KraneShares CSI Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 14th of May 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of KraneShares CSI China on the next trading day is expected to be 21.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28, mean absolute percentage error of 0.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.77.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict KraneShares Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that KraneShares CSI's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
KraneShares CSI Etf Forecast Pattern
KraneShares CSI Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting KraneShares CSI's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. KraneShares CSI's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.56 and 23.26, respectively. We have considered KraneShares CSI's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of KraneShares CSI etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent KraneShares CSI etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.2268 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0725 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2795 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0151 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.77 |
Predictive Modules for KraneShares CSI
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as KraneShares CSI China. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of KraneShares CSI's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as KraneShares CSI. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against KraneShares CSI's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, KraneShares CSI's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in KraneShares CSI China.
Other Forecasting Options for KraneShares CSI
For every potential investor in KraneShares, whether a beginner or expert, KraneShares CSI's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. KraneShares Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in KraneShares. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying KraneShares CSI's price trends.KraneShares CSI Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with KraneShares CSI etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of KraneShares CSI could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing KraneShares CSI by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
KraneShares CSI China Technical and Predictive Analytics
The etf market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of KraneShares CSI's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of KraneShares CSI's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
KraneShares CSI Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how KraneShares CSI etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading KraneShares CSI shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying KraneShares CSI etf market strength indicators, traders can identify KraneShares CSI China entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
KraneShares CSI Risk Indicators
The analysis of KraneShares CSI's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in KraneShares CSI's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting kraneshares etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.51 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.27 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.88 | |||
| Variance | 3.54 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.52 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.61 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.91) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards KraneShares CSI in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, KraneShares CSI's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from KraneShares CSI options trading.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any etf could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors. You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .