KAR Auction Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average

KAR Stock  USD 17.74  0.03  0.17%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of KAR Auction Services on the next trading day is expected to be 17.74 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.21  and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.44. KAR Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast KAR Auction stock prices and determine the direction of KAR Auction Services's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of KAR Auction's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although KAR Auction's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of KAR Auction's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of KAR Auction fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of KAR Auction to cross-verify your projections.
  
At this time, KAR Auction's Payables Turnover is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 05/11/2024, Fixed Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 7.03, while Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 46.44. . As of 05/11/2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 141.4 M, while Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to drop slightly above 166.4 M.

Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 KAR Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast KAR Auction's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in KAR Auction's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for KAR Auction stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current KAR Auction's open interest, investors have to compare it to KAR Auction's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of KAR Auction is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in KAR. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in KAR Auction cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the KAR Auction's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets KAR Auction's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A two period moving average forecast for KAR Auction is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

KAR Auction Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 12th of May 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of KAR Auction Services on the next trading day is expected to be 17.74 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.44.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict KAR Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that KAR Auction's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

KAR Auction Stock Forecast Pattern

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KAR Auction Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting KAR Auction's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. KAR Auction's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.08 and 19.40, respectively. We have considered KAR Auction's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
17.74
17.74
Expected Value
19.40
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of KAR Auction stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent KAR Auction stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.6086
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0837
MADMean absolute deviation0.2073
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0125
SAESum of the absolute errors12.44
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of KAR Auction Services price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of KAR Auction. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for KAR Auction

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as KAR Auction Services. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of KAR Auction's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
16.0717.7319.39
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
15.4817.1418.80
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
16.5118.1420.14
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.190.200.22
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as KAR Auction. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against KAR Auction's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, KAR Auction's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in KAR Auction Services.

Other Forecasting Options for KAR Auction

For every potential investor in KAR, whether a beginner or expert, KAR Auction's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. KAR Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in KAR. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying KAR Auction's price trends.

KAR Auction Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with KAR Auction stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of KAR Auction could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing KAR Auction by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

KAR Auction Services Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of KAR Auction's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of KAR Auction's current price.

KAR Auction Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how KAR Auction stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading KAR Auction shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying KAR Auction stock market strength indicators, traders can identify KAR Auction Services entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

KAR Auction Risk Indicators

The analysis of KAR Auction's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in KAR Auction's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting kar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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When determining whether KAR Auction Services is a strong investment it is important to analyze KAR Auction's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact KAR Auction's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding KAR Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of KAR Auction to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the KAR Auction Services information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other KAR Auction's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..

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When running KAR Auction's price analysis, check to measure KAR Auction's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy KAR Auction is operating at the current time. Most of KAR Auction's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of KAR Auction's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move KAR Auction's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of KAR Auction to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is KAR Auction's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of KAR Auction. If investors know KAR will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about KAR Auction listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
4
Earnings Share
(1.79)
Revenue Per Share
15.074
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.01)
Return On Assets
0.0313
The market value of KAR Auction Services is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of KAR that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of KAR Auction's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is KAR Auction's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because KAR Auction's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect KAR Auction's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between KAR Auction's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if KAR Auction is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, KAR Auction's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.