KAR Auction Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| KAR Stock | USD 17.74 0.03 0.17% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of KAR Auction Services on the next trading day is expected to be 17.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.93. KAR Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast KAR Auction stock prices and determine the direction of KAR Auction Services's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of KAR Auction's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although KAR Auction's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of KAR Auction's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of KAR Auction fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of KAR Auction to cross-verify your projections. KAR |
Open Interest Against 2024-05-17 KAR Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast KAR Auction's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in KAR Auction's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for KAR Auction stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current KAR Auction's open interest, investors have to compare it to KAR Auction's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of KAR Auction is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in KAR. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in KAR Auction cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the KAR Auction's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets KAR Auction's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for KAR Auction works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. KAR Auction Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 12th of May 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of KAR Auction Services on the next trading day is expected to be 17.76 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.93.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict KAR Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that KAR Auction's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
KAR Auction Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest KAR Auction | KAR Auction Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
KAR Auction Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting KAR Auction's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. KAR Auction's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.10 and 19.42, respectively. We have considered KAR Auction's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of KAR Auction stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent KAR Auction stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0311 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2022 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0122 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.9284 |
Predictive Modules for KAR Auction
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as KAR Auction Services. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of KAR Auction's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for KAR Auction
For every potential investor in KAR, whether a beginner or expert, KAR Auction's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. KAR Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in KAR. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying KAR Auction's price trends.KAR Auction Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with KAR Auction stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of KAR Auction could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing KAR Auction by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
KAR Auction Services Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of KAR Auction's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of KAR Auction's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
KAR Auction Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how KAR Auction stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading KAR Auction shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying KAR Auction stock market strength indicators, traders can identify KAR Auction Services entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
KAR Auction Risk Indicators
The analysis of KAR Auction's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in KAR Auction's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting kar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.1 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.63 | |||
| Variance | 2.64 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.11 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.21 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.42) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
KAR Auction Investors Sentiment
The influence of KAR Auction's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in KAR. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to KAR Auction's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in KAR. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding KAR can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around KAR Auction Services. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
KAR Auction's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for KAR Auction's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average KAR Auction's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on KAR Auction.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards KAR Auction in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, KAR Auction's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from KAR Auction options trading.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Historical Fundamental Analysis of KAR Auction to cross-verify your projections. Note that the KAR Auction Services information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other KAR Auction's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.
Complementary Tools for KAR Stock analysis
When running KAR Auction's price analysis, check to measure KAR Auction's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy KAR Auction is operating at the current time. Most of KAR Auction's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of KAR Auction's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move KAR Auction's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of KAR Auction to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Portfolio Diagnostics Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings | |
| Stock Tickers Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites | |
| Crypto Correlations Use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins | |
| Commodity Channel Use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum | |
| Transaction History View history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance | |
| Performance Analysis Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation | |
| Idea Analyzer Analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas | |
| Portfolio Optimization Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk | |
| Sectors List of equity sectors categorizing publicly traded companies based on their primary business activities | |
| Stock Screener Find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook. |
Is KAR Auction's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of KAR Auction. If investors know KAR will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about KAR Auction listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 4 | Earnings Share (1.79) | Revenue Per Share 15.074 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.01) | Return On Assets 0.0313 |
The market value of KAR Auction Services is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of KAR that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of KAR Auction's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is KAR Auction's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because KAR Auction's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect KAR Auction's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between KAR Auction's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if KAR Auction is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, KAR Auction's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.