Fidelis Insurance Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| FIHL Stock | 18.27 0.26 1.40% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fidelis Insurance Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 17.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31 and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.92. Fidelis Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Fidelis Insurance stock prices and determine the direction of Fidelis Insurance Holdings's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Fidelis Insurance's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Fidelis Insurance's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Fidelis Insurance's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Fidelis Insurance fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fidelis Insurance to cross-verify your projections. Fidelis |
Most investors in Fidelis Insurance cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Fidelis Insurance's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Fidelis Insurance's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Fidelis Insurance is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Fidelis Insurance Holdings value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Fidelis Insurance Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 21st of May
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Fidelis Insurance Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 17.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.31, mean absolute percentage error of 0.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 18.92.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Fidelis Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Fidelis Insurance's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Fidelis Insurance Stock Forecast Pattern
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Fidelis Insurance Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Fidelis Insurance's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Fidelis Insurance's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.45 and 20.53, respectively. We have considered Fidelis Insurance's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Fidelis Insurance stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Fidelis Insurance stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.2348 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3102 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0172 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 18.9216 |
Predictive Modules for Fidelis Insurance
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fidelis Insurance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fidelis Insurance's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Fidelis Insurance
For every potential investor in Fidelis, whether a beginner or expert, Fidelis Insurance's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Fidelis Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Fidelis. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Fidelis Insurance's price trends.Fidelis Insurance Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Fidelis Insurance stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Fidelis Insurance could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Fidelis Insurance by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Fidelis Insurance Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Fidelis Insurance's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Fidelis Insurance's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Fidelis Insurance Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Fidelis Insurance stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Fidelis Insurance shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Fidelis Insurance stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Fidelis Insurance Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Fidelis Insurance Risk Indicators
The analysis of Fidelis Insurance's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Fidelis Insurance's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting fidelis stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.65 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.54 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.51 | |||
| Variance | 6.29 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.62 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.36 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.90) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Fidelis Insurance to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Fidelis Insurance information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Fidelis Insurance's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.
Complementary Tools for Fidelis Stock analysis
When running Fidelis Insurance's price analysis, check to measure Fidelis Insurance's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fidelis Insurance is operating at the current time. Most of Fidelis Insurance's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fidelis Insurance's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fidelis Insurance's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fidelis Insurance to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Fidelis Insurance's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fidelis Insurance. If investors know Fidelis will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fidelis Insurance listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.96) | Dividend Share 0.1 | Earnings Share 4.1 | Revenue Per Share 17.791 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.75) |
The market value of Fidelis Insurance is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fidelis that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fidelis Insurance's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fidelis Insurance's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fidelis Insurance's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fidelis Insurance's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fidelis Insurance's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fidelis Insurance is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fidelis Insurance's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.