Fidelis Insurance Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 20.53
| FIHL Stock | 16.58 0.29 1.78% |
Fidelis |
Fidelis Insurance Target Price Odds to finish over 20.53
The tendency of Fidelis Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 20.53 or more in 90 days |
| 16.58 | 90 days | 20.53 | roughly 2.67 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Fidelis Insurance to move over 20.53 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.67 (This Fidelis Insurance Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Fidelis Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Fidelis Insurance price to stay between its current price of 16.58 and 20.53 at the end of the 90-day period is about 90.3 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.97 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Fidelis Insurance will likely underperform. Additionally Fidelis Insurance Holdings has an alpha of 0.1395, implying that it can generate a 0.14 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Fidelis Insurance Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Fidelis Insurance
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Fidelis Insurance. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fidelis Insurance's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Fidelis Insurance Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Fidelis Insurance is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Fidelis Insurance's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Fidelis Insurance Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Fidelis Insurance within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.14 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.97 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.16 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.07 |
Fidelis Insurance Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Fidelis Insurance for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Fidelis Insurance can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Fidelis Insurance generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Fidelis Insurance has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 66.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Fidelis Insurance Completes Secondary Share Offering - TipRanks.com - TipRanks |
Fidelis Insurance Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Fidelis Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Fidelis Insurance's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Fidelis Insurance's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 114.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 4 B |
Fidelis Insurance Technical Analysis
Fidelis Insurance's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Fidelis Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Fidelis Insurance Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Fidelis Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Fidelis Insurance Predictive Forecast Models
Fidelis Insurance's time-series forecasting models is one of many Fidelis Insurance's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Fidelis Insurance's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Fidelis Insurance
Checking the ongoing alerts about Fidelis Insurance for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Fidelis Insurance help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Fidelis Insurance generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Fidelis Insurance has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 66.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Fidelis Insurance Completes Secondary Share Offering - TipRanks.com - TipRanks |
Check out Fidelis Insurance Backtesting, Fidelis Insurance Valuation, Fidelis Insurance Correlation, Fidelis Insurance Hype Analysis, Fidelis Insurance Volatility, Fidelis Insurance History as well as Fidelis Insurance Performance. Note that the Fidelis Insurance information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Fidelis Insurance's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.
Complementary Tools for Fidelis Stock analysis
When running Fidelis Insurance's price analysis, check to measure Fidelis Insurance's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Fidelis Insurance is operating at the current time. Most of Fidelis Insurance's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Fidelis Insurance's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Fidelis Insurance's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Fidelis Insurance to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Fidelis Insurance's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fidelis Insurance. If investors know Fidelis will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fidelis Insurance listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.96) | Dividend Share 0.1 | Earnings Share 4.11 | Revenue Per Share 17.791 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.75) |
The market value of Fidelis Insurance is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fidelis that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fidelis Insurance's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fidelis Insurance's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fidelis Insurance's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fidelis Insurance's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fidelis Insurance's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fidelis Insurance is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fidelis Insurance's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.