Erie Indemnity Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ERIE Stock | USD 362.43 11.52 3.08% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Erie Indemnity on the next trading day is expected to be 360.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 241.09. Erie Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Erie Indemnity stock prices and determine the direction of Erie Indemnity's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Erie Indemnity's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Erie Indemnity's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Erie Indemnity's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Erie Indemnity fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Erie Indemnity to cross-verify your projections. Erie |
Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 Erie Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Erie Indemnity's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Erie Indemnity's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Erie Indemnity stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Erie Indemnity's open interest, investors have to compare it to Erie Indemnity's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Erie Indemnity is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Erie. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Erie Indemnity cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Erie Indemnity's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Erie Indemnity's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Erie Indemnity works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. Erie Indemnity Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of June
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Erie Indemnity on the next trading day is expected to be 360.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 4.09, mean absolute percentage error of 25.45, and the sum of the absolute errors of 241.09.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Erie Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Erie Indemnity's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Erie Indemnity Stock Forecast Pattern
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Erie Indemnity Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Erie Indemnity's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Erie Indemnity's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 359.70 and 362.22, respectively. We have considered Erie Indemnity's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Erie Indemnity stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Erie Indemnity stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.5866 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 4.0863 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0104 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 241.09 |
Predictive Modules for Erie Indemnity
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Erie Indemnity. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Erie Indemnity's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Erie Indemnity
For every potential investor in Erie, whether a beginner or expert, Erie Indemnity's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Erie Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Erie. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Erie Indemnity's price trends.Erie Indemnity Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Erie Indemnity stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Erie Indemnity could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Erie Indemnity by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Erie Indemnity Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Erie Indemnity's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Erie Indemnity's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Erie Indemnity Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Erie Indemnity stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Erie Indemnity shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Erie Indemnity stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Erie Indemnity entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0346 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.89) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 367.64 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 365.9 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 12.93 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (10.97) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (11.52) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 38.81 |
Erie Indemnity Risk Indicators
The analysis of Erie Indemnity's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Erie Indemnity's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting erie stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.0 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.28 | |||
| Variance | 1.63 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Erie Indemnity is a strong investment it is important to analyze Erie Indemnity's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Erie Indemnity's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Erie Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Erie Indemnity to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Erie Stock refer to our How to Trade Erie Stock guide.You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Complementary Tools for Erie Stock analysis
When running Erie Indemnity's price analysis, check to measure Erie Indemnity's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Erie Indemnity is operating at the current time. Most of Erie Indemnity's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Erie Indemnity's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Erie Indemnity's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Erie Indemnity to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Erie Indemnity's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Erie Indemnity. If investors know Erie will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Erie Indemnity listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.443 | Dividend Share 4.93 | Earnings Share 9.27 | Revenue Per Share 73.549 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.17 |
The market value of Erie Indemnity is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Erie that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Erie Indemnity's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Erie Indemnity's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Erie Indemnity's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Erie Indemnity's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Erie Indemnity's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Erie Indemnity is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Erie Indemnity's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.