Bumi Teknokultura Stock Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average
| BTEK Stock | IDR 3.00 1.00 25.00% |
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Bumi Teknokultura Unggul on the next trading day is expected to be 3.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 116.75. Bumi Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Bumi Teknokultura stock prices and determine the direction of Bumi Teknokultura Unggul's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Bumi Teknokultura's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bumi Teknokultura to cross-verify your projections. Bumi |
Most investors in Bumi Teknokultura cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Bumi Teknokultura's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Bumi Teknokultura's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Bumi Teknokultura Unggul is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility. Bumi Teknokultura 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 18th of May 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Bumi Teknokultura Unggul on the next trading day is expected to be 3.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.01, mean absolute percentage error of 11.24, and the sum of the absolute errors of 116.75.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bumi Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bumi Teknokultura's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bumi Teknokultura Stock Forecast Pattern
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Bumi Teknokultura Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bumi Teknokultura's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bumi Teknokultura's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 11.96, respectively. We have considered Bumi Teknokultura's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bumi Teknokultura stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bumi Teknokultura stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.0166 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 2.0129 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.0129 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.1409 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 116.75 |
Predictive Modules for Bumi Teknokultura
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bumi Teknokultura Unggul. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bumi Teknokultura's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Bumi Teknokultura
For every potential investor in Bumi, whether a beginner or expert, Bumi Teknokultura's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bumi Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bumi. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bumi Teknokultura's price trends.Bumi Teknokultura Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bumi Teknokultura stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bumi Teknokultura could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bumi Teknokultura by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bumi Teknokultura Unggul Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bumi Teknokultura's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bumi Teknokultura's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Bumi Teknokultura Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bumi Teknokultura stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bumi Teknokultura shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bumi Teknokultura stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bumi Teknokultura Unggul entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 63325.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.00) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.75 | |||
| Day Median Price | 3.5 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 3.33 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (1.00) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.00) |
Bumi Teknokultura Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bumi Teknokultura's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bumi Teknokultura's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bumi stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.58 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.77 | |||
| Variance | 60.3 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis
Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Bumi Teknokultura Unggul using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.Build Optimal Portfolios
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Bumi Teknokultura to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.
Complementary Tools for Bumi Stock analysis
When running Bumi Teknokultura's price analysis, check to measure Bumi Teknokultura's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bumi Teknokultura is operating at the current time. Most of Bumi Teknokultura's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Bumi Teknokultura's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bumi Teknokultura's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Bumi Teknokultura to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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