Aspen Technology Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| AZPN Stock | USD 207.30 1.78 0.85% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aspen Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 208.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 223.37. Aspen Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Aspen Technology stock prices and determine the direction of Aspen Technology's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Aspen Technology's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aspen Technology to cross-verify your projections. Aspen |
Most investors in Aspen Technology cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Aspen Technology's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Aspen Technology's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Aspen Technology works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality. Aspen Technology Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 15th of May 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aspen Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 208.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.79, mean absolute percentage error of 24.27, and the sum of the absolute errors of 223.37.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aspen Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aspen Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aspen Technology Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aspen Technology | Aspen Technology Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Aspen Technology Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aspen Technology's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aspen Technology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 206.55 and 210.81, respectively. We have considered Aspen Technology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aspen Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aspen Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.6195 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 3.7859 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.019 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 223.3685 |
Predictive Modules for Aspen Technology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aspen Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aspen Technology's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Aspen Technology
For every potential investor in Aspen, whether a beginner or expert, Aspen Technology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aspen Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aspen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aspen Technology's price trends.View Aspen Technology Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aspen Technology Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Aspen Technology's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Aspen Technology's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aspen Technology Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aspen Technology stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aspen Technology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aspen Technology stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aspen Technology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | (9,223,372,036,855) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 207.3 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 207.3 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.89) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (1.78) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 49.52 |
Aspen Technology Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aspen Technology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aspen Technology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aspen stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.57 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.98 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.13 | |||
| Variance | 4.55 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.73 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.94 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.51) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Aspen Technology Investors Sentiment
The influence of Aspen Technology's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Aspen. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Aspen Technology's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Aspen. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Aspen can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Aspen Technology. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Aspen Technology's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Aspen Technology's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Aspen Technology's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Aspen Technology.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Aspen Technology in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Aspen Technology's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Aspen Technology options trading.
Pair Trading with Aspen Technology
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Aspen Technology position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Aspen Technology will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving against Aspen Stock
| 0.74 | VCSA | Vacasa Inc Downward Rally | PairCorr |
| 0.73 | EB | Eventbrite Class A | PairCorr |
| 0.71 | NOGWQ | Nogin Inc | PairCorr |
| 0.7 | DMAN | Innovativ Media Group | PairCorr |
| 0.66 | DT | Dynatrace Holdings LLC Earnings Call Tomorrow | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Aspen Technology could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Aspen Technology when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Aspen Technology - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Aspen Technology to buy it.
The correlation of Aspen Technology is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Aspen Technology moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Aspen Technology moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Aspen Technology can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aspen Technology to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Aspen Stock, please use our How to Invest in Aspen Technology guide.You can also try the Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.
Complementary Tools for Aspen Stock analysis
When running Aspen Technology's price analysis, check to measure Aspen Technology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aspen Technology is operating at the current time. Most of Aspen Technology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aspen Technology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aspen Technology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aspen Technology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Aspen Technology's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aspen Technology. If investors know Aspen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aspen Technology listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Aspen Technology is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aspen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aspen Technology's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aspen Technology's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aspen Technology's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aspen Technology's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aspen Technology's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aspen Technology is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aspen Technology's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.