Aspen Technology Stock Buy Hold or Sell Recommendation
AZPN Stock | USD 197.11 1.08 0.54% |
Given the investment horizon of 90 days and your typical level of risk aversion, our recommendation regarding Aspen Technology is 'Strong Hold'. Macroaxis provides Aspen Technology buy-hold-or-sell recommendation only in the context of selected investment horizon and investor attitude towards risk assumed by holding AZPN positions. The advice algorithm takes into account all of Aspen Technology's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators you will find on this site. Key drivers impacting Aspen Technology's buy or sell advice are summarized below:
Real Value 199.31 | Target Price 201.83 | Hype Value 197.1 | Market Value 197.11 | Naive Value 189.81 |
A buy or sell recommendation provided by Macroaxis is an automated directive regarding whether to purchase or sell Aspen Technology given historical horizon and risk tolerance towards Aspen Technology. When Macroaxis issues a 'buy' or 'sell' recommendation for Aspen Technology, the advice is generated through an automated system that utilizes algorithms and statistical models.
Aspen |
Execute Aspen Technology Buy or Sell Advice
The Aspen recommendation should be used to complement the buy-or-sell advice compiled from the current analysts' consensus on Aspen Technology. Macroaxis does not own or have any residual interests in Aspen Technology or other equities on which the buy-or-sell advice is provided. Please provide your input below to execute Aspen Technology's advice using the current market data and latest reported fundamentals.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
Strong Hold
Market Performance | Very Weak | Details | |
Volatility | Very steady | Details | |
Hype Condition | Low key | Details | |
Current Valuation | Fairly Valued | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Below Average | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Responds to the market | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Impartial | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Healthy | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Inapplicable | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Aspen Technology Trading Alerts and Improvement Suggestions
Aspen Technology generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.04 B. Net Loss for the year was (107.76 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 331.87 M. | |
About 58.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: AudioEye Tops Q1 Earnings and Revenue Estimates |
Aspen Technology Returns Distribution Density
The distribution of Aspen Technology's historical returns is an attempt to chart the uncertainty of Aspen Technology's future price movements. The chart of the probability distribution of Aspen Technology daily returns describes the distribution of returns around its average expected value. We use Aspen Technology price's Value At Risk and its Upside Potential as a relative measure of the distribution. The graph of the distribution of Aspen Technology returns is essential to provide solid investment advice for Aspen Technology.
Mean Return | -0.02 | Value At Risk | -2.98 | Potential Upside | 3.01 | Standard Deviation | 1.97 |
Return Density |
Distribution |
Investment risk management requires an estimate of the probability of extreme price changes. Therefore, the correct representation of the distribution of Aspen Technology historical returns presented in an easy-to-digest graphical form helps investors and money managers understand the risk-reward trade-off of different investement strategies.
Aspen Stock Institutional Investors
Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Aspen Technology is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aspen Technology backward and forwards among themselves. Aspen Technology's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Aspen Technology's securities or originates loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares | Clearbridge Advisors, Llc | 2023-12-31 | 497.9 K | Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc | 2023-12-31 | 415.7 K | Independent Franchise Partners Llp | 2023-12-31 | 413.1 K | Lazard Asset Management Llc | 2023-12-31 | 369.7 K | Dimensional Fund Advisors, Inc. | 2023-12-31 | 313.1 K | Valley Forge Capital Management, Lp | 2023-12-31 | 295.5 K | Credit Suisse First Boston (csfb) | 2023-12-31 | 294.9 K | Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts | 2023-12-31 | 272.9 K | Two Creeks Capital Management, Lp | 2023-12-31 | 265.8 K | Blackrock Inc | 2023-12-31 | 5.3 M | Kayne Anderson Rudnick Investment Management Llc | 2023-12-31 | 3.8 M |
Aspen Technology Cash Flow Accounts
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
Change In Cash | 215.9M | 92.1M | 424.0M | (208.5M) | (239.8M) | (227.8M) | |
Free Cash Flow | 241.8M | 273.8M | 224.2M | 292.3M | 336.1M | 352.9M | |
Depreciation | 9.6M | 10.3M | 158.0M | 491.4M | 565.1M | 593.4M | |
Other Non Cash Items | 13.6M | 23.0M | 2.4M | 51.7M | 46.6M | 48.9M | |
Capital Expenditures | 1.4M | 2.4M | 6.2M | 6.9M | 6.2M | 5.8M | |
Net Income | 225.7M | 319.8M | 41.9M | (107.8M) | (123.9M) | (117.7M) | |
End Period Cash Flow | 287.8M | 379.9M | 449.7M | 241.2M | 277.4M | 145.6M | |
Change To Inventory | (61.7M) | (12.1M) | (136.8M) | (27.7M) | (24.9M) | (26.2M) | |
Change Receivables | 4.3M | (6.6M) | (12.9M) | (2.1M) | (1.9M) | (1.8M) | |
Net Borrowings | 50M | 207.6M | (135.2M) | (8.0M) | (7.2M) | (6.8M) | |
Change To Netincome | 557K | 64.6M | 59.9M | (75.5M) | (68.0M) | (64.6M) | |
Investments | (324K) | (1.1M) | (32K) | (107.3M) | (96.6M) | (91.8M) |
Aspen Technology Greeks
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Aspen Technology or Software sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Aspen Technology's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Aspen stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.16 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.56 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.02 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Aspen Technology Volatility Alert
Aspen Technology exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 0.35 and kurtosis of 2.74. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Aspen Technology's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Aspen Technology's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.Aspen Technology Fundamentals Vs Peers
Comparing Aspen Technology's fundamentals to the average values of its peers is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It helps to analyze Aspen Technology's direct or indirect competition across all of the common fundamentals between Aspen Technology and the related equities. This way, we can detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics as Aspen Technology or determine the stocks which would be an excellent addition to an existing portfolio. Peer analysis of Aspen Technology's fundamental indicators could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aspen Technology by comparing valuation metrics with those of similar companies.
Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Aspen Technology to competition |
Fundamentals | Aspen Technology | Peer Average |
Return On Equity | -0.0066 | -0.31 |
Return On Asset | -0.0078 | -0.14 |
Profit Margin | (0.08) % | (1.27) % |
Operating Margin | (0.19) % | (5.51) % |
Current Valuation | 12.59 B | 16.62 B |
Shares Outstanding | 63.55 M | 571.82 M |
Shares Owned By Insiders | 57.72 % | 10.09 % |
Shares Owned By Institutions | 47.51 % | 39.21 % |
Number Of Shares Shorted | 1.45 M | 4.71 M |
Price To Earning | 62.82 X | 28.72 X |
Price To Book | 1.05 X | 9.51 X |
Price To Sales | 12.72 X | 11.42 X |
Revenue | 1.04 B | 9.43 B |
Gross Profit | 331.87 M | 27.38 B |
EBITDA | 308.35 M | 3.9 B |
Net Income | (107.76 M) | 570.98 M |
Cash And Equivalents | 382.46 M | 2.7 B |
Cash Per Share | 5.93 X | 5.01 X |
Total Debt | 68.37 M | 5.32 B |
Debt To Equity | 0.03 % | 48.70 % |
Current Ratio | 3.48 X | 2.16 X |
Book Value Per Share | 201.96 X | 1.93 K |
Cash Flow From Operations | 299.21 M | 971.22 M |
Short Ratio | 6.73 X | 4.00 X |
Earnings Per Share | (1.35) X | 3.12 X |
Price To Earnings To Growth | 4.81 X | 4.89 X |
Target Price | 217.86 | |
Number Of Employees | 3.9 K | 18.84 K |
Beta | 0.75 | -0.15 |
Market Capitalization | 12.59 B | 19.03 B |
Total Asset | 14.49 B | 29.47 B |
Retained Earnings | (41.39 M) | 9.33 B |
Working Capital | 480.64 M | 1.48 B |
Note: Disposition of 103 shares by Stagno Christopher of Aspen Technology at 207.91 subject to Rule 16b-3 [view details]
Aspen Technology Market Momentum
Traders often use several daily momentume indicators to supplement a more traditional technical analysis when analyzing securities such as Aspen . With many different options, investors must choose the best indicators for them and familiarize themselves with how they work. We suggest combining traditional momentum indicators with more near-term forms of technical analysis such as Accumulation Distribution or Daily Balance Of Power. With their quantitative nature, daily value technical indicators can also be incorporated into your automated trading systems.
Accumulation Distribution | 1420.91 | |||
Daily Balance Of Power | (0.37) | |||
Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
Day Median Price | 197.54 | |||
Day Typical Price | 197.4 | |||
Price Action Indicator | (0.97) | |||
Period Momentum Indicator | (1.08) | |||
Relative Strength Index | 75.98 |
About Aspen Technology Buy or Sell Advice
When is the right time to buy or sell Aspen Technology? Buying financial instruments such as Aspen Stock isn't very hard. However, what challenging for most investors is doing it at the right time to beat the market. Proper market timing is something most people cannot do without sophisticated tools, which help to isolate the right opportunities. Macroaxis provides hands-on modules to deliver winning trades and diversify your portfolios on a daily basis. Most of our advising modules are very easy to use and apply.
Please read more on our stock advisor page.2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Short and Long Term Debt Total | 352.8M | 68.4M | 78.6M | 131.3M | Total Assets | 15.0B | 14.5B | 16.7B | 17.5B |
Use Investing Ideas to Build Portfolios
In addition to having Aspen Technology in your portfolios, you can quickly add positions using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your very unique investing style. A single investing idea is a collection of funds, stocks, ETFs, or cryptocurrencies that are programmatically selected from a pull of investment themes. After you determine your investment opportunity, you can then find an optimal portfolio that will maximize potential returns on the chosen idea or minimize its exposure to market volatility.Did You Try This Idea?
Run Utilities Thematic Idea Now
Utilities
Highly leveraged corporations that deliver utilities such as power, water or gas to public or business. The Utilities theme has 30 constituents at this time.
You can either use a buy-and-hold strategy to lock in the entire theme or actively trade it to take advantage of the short-term price volatility of individual constituents. Macroaxis can help you discover thousands of investment opportunities in different asset classes. In addition, you can partner with us for reliable portfolio optimization as you plan to utilize Utilities Theme or any other thematic opportunities.
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Check out Aspen Technology Analyst Recommendation to compare Macroaxis Buy or Sell Recommendation with the current analyst consensus. To check ratings for multiple equity instruments, please use the Instant Ratings tool. To learn how to invest in Aspen Stock, please use our How to Invest in Aspen Technology guide.You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
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When running Aspen Technology's price analysis, check to measure Aspen Technology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Aspen Technology is operating at the current time. Most of Aspen Technology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Aspen Technology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Aspen Technology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Aspen Technology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Aspen Technology's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aspen Technology. If investors know Aspen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aspen Technology listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.63) | Earnings Share (1.35) | Revenue Per Share 16.424 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.059 | Return On Assets (0.01) |
The market value of Aspen Technology is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aspen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aspen Technology's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aspen Technology's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aspen Technology's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aspen Technology's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aspen Technology's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Aspen Technology is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aspen Technology's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.