Arena Bilgisayar Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

ARENA Stock  TRY 43.86  1.58  3.74%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Arena Bilgisayar Sanayi on the next trading day is expected to be 46.05 with a mean absolute deviation of  3.83  and the sum of the absolute errors of 233.66. Arena Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Arena Bilgisayar stock prices and determine the direction of Arena Bilgisayar Sanayi's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Arena Bilgisayar's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arena Bilgisayar to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in Arena Bilgisayar cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Arena Bilgisayar's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Arena Bilgisayar's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Arena Bilgisayar price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Arena Bilgisayar Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of May

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Arena Bilgisayar Sanayi on the next trading day is expected to be 46.05 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.83, mean absolute percentage error of 23.89, and the sum of the absolute errors of 233.66.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Arena Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Arena Bilgisayar's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Arena Bilgisayar Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Arena BilgisayarArena Bilgisayar Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Arena Bilgisayar Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Arena Bilgisayar's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Arena Bilgisayar's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 42.34 and 49.76, respectively. We have considered Arena Bilgisayar's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
43.86
46.05
Expected Value
49.76
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Arena Bilgisayar stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Arena Bilgisayar stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.2839
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation3.8305
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0818
SAESum of the absolute errors233.6603
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Arena Bilgisayar Sanayi historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Arena Bilgisayar

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arena Bilgisayar Sanayi. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arena Bilgisayar's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
40.1543.8647.57
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
35.3839.0948.25
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
37.6748.78168.55
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Arena Bilgisayar. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Arena Bilgisayar's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Arena Bilgisayar's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Arena Bilgisayar Sanayi.

Other Forecasting Options for Arena Bilgisayar

For every potential investor in Arena, whether a beginner or expert, Arena Bilgisayar's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Arena Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Arena. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Arena Bilgisayar's price trends.

Arena Bilgisayar Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Arena Bilgisayar stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Arena Bilgisayar could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arena Bilgisayar by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Arena Bilgisayar Sanayi Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Arena Bilgisayar's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Arena Bilgisayar's current price.

Arena Bilgisayar Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Arena Bilgisayar stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Arena Bilgisayar shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Arena Bilgisayar stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Arena Bilgisayar Sanayi entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Arena Bilgisayar Risk Indicators

The analysis of Arena Bilgisayar's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Arena Bilgisayar's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting arena stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Arena Bilgisayar

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Arena Bilgisayar position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Arena Bilgisayar will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Arena Bilgisayar could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Arena Bilgisayar when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Arena Bilgisayar - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Arena Bilgisayar Sanayi to buy it.
The correlation of Arena Bilgisayar is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Arena Bilgisayar moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Arena Bilgisayar Sanayi moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Arena Bilgisayar can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arena Bilgisayar to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Arena Bilgisayar Sanayi information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Arena Bilgisayar's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Global Markets Map module to get a quick overview of global market snapshot using zoomable world map. Drill down to check world indexes.

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Please note, there is a significant difference between Arena Bilgisayar's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Arena Bilgisayar is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arena Bilgisayar's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.