Allegiant Travel Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| ALGT Stock | USD 52.29 0.86 1.62% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Allegiant Travel on the next trading day is expected to be 54.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.92 and the sum of the absolute errors of 118.84. Allegiant Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Allegiant Travel stock prices and determine the direction of Allegiant Travel's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Allegiant Travel's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Allegiant Travel's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Allegiant Travel's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Allegiant Travel fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Allegiant Travel to cross-verify your projections. Allegiant |
Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 Allegiant Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Allegiant Travel's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Allegiant Travel's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Allegiant Travel stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Allegiant Travel's open interest, investors have to compare it to Allegiant Travel's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Allegiant Travel is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Allegiant. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Allegiant Travel cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Allegiant Travel's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Allegiant Travel's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Allegiant Travel polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Allegiant Travel as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices. Allegiant Travel Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 9th of June
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Allegiant Travel on the next trading day is expected to be 54.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.92, mean absolute percentage error of 5.98, and the sum of the absolute errors of 118.84.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Allegiant Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Allegiant Travel's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Allegiant Travel Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Allegiant Travel | Allegiant Travel Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Allegiant Travel Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Allegiant Travel's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Allegiant Travel's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 52.07 and 57.66, respectively. We have considered Allegiant Travel's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Allegiant Travel stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Allegiant Travel stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 121.7376 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.9167 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0322 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 118.8364 |
Predictive Modules for Allegiant Travel
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allegiant Travel. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Allegiant Travel's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Allegiant Travel
For every potential investor in Allegiant, whether a beginner or expert, Allegiant Travel's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Allegiant Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Allegiant. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Allegiant Travel's price trends.Allegiant Travel Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Allegiant Travel stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Allegiant Travel could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Allegiant Travel by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Allegiant Travel Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Allegiant Travel's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Allegiant Travel's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Allegiant Travel Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Allegiant Travel stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Allegiant Travel shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Allegiant Travel stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Allegiant Travel entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 7992.48 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.49) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 52.62 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 52.51 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.76) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.86) |
Allegiant Travel Risk Indicators
The analysis of Allegiant Travel's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Allegiant Travel's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting allegiant stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.03 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.75 | |||
| Variance | 7.54 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with Allegiant Travel
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Allegiant Travel position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Allegiant Travel will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Allegiant Stock
Moving against Allegiant Stock
| 0.84 | DAL | Delta Air Lines Financial Report 11th of July 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.77 | SKYW | SkyWest | PairCorr |
| 0.72 | ULH | Universal Logistics | PairCorr |
| 0.62 | MESA | Mesa Air Group Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.56 | VLRS | Volaris | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Allegiant Travel could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Allegiant Travel when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Allegiant Travel - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Allegiant Travel to buy it.
The correlation of Allegiant Travel is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Allegiant Travel moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Allegiant Travel moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Allegiant Travel can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Allegiant Stock Analysis
When running Allegiant Travel's price analysis, check to measure Allegiant Travel's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Allegiant Travel is operating at the current time. Most of Allegiant Travel's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Allegiant Travel's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Allegiant Travel's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Allegiant Travel to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.