Allegiant Travel Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average

ALGT Stock  USD 48.97  0.87  1.81%   
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Allegiant Travel on the next trading day is expected to be 52.55 with a mean absolute deviation of  5.05  and the sum of the absolute errors of 207.18. Allegiant Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Allegiant Travel stock prices and determine the direction of Allegiant Travel's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Allegiant Travel's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Allegiant Travel's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Allegiant Travel's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Allegiant Travel fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Allegiant Travel to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Allegiant Stock please use our How to Invest in Allegiant Travel guide.
  
Receivables Turnover is likely to gain to 52.44 in 2024, whereas Inventory Turnover is likely to drop 37.61 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to drop to about 18 M in 2024. Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to drop to about 2.7 M in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-06-21 Allegiant Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Allegiant Travel's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Allegiant Travel's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Allegiant Travel stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Allegiant Travel's open interest, investors have to compare it to Allegiant Travel's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Allegiant Travel is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Allegiant. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Allegiant Travel cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Allegiant Travel's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Allegiant Travel's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for Allegiant Travel is based on a synthetically constructed Allegiant Traveldaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time.

Allegiant Travel 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of May

Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Allegiant Travel on the next trading day is expected to be 52.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.05, mean absolute percentage error of 28.65, and the sum of the absolute errors of 207.18.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Allegiant Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Allegiant Travel's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Allegiant Travel Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Allegiant TravelAllegiant Travel Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Allegiant Travel Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Allegiant Travel's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Allegiant Travel's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 49.95 and 55.15, respectively. We have considered Allegiant Travel's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
48.97
52.55
Expected Value
55.15
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Allegiant Travel stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Allegiant Travel stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria84.708
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 4.9583
MADMean absolute deviation5.0532
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0895
SAESum of the absolute errors207.1795
The eieght-period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and valleys in a set of daily observations. Allegiant Travel 20-period moving average forecast can only be used reliably to predict one or two periods into the future.

Predictive Modules for Allegiant Travel

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Allegiant Travel. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Allegiant Travel's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
44.5447.1449.74
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
43.2960.6663.26
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
46.9648.7050.45
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
92.55101.70112.89
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Allegiant Travel. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Allegiant Travel's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Allegiant Travel's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Allegiant Travel.

Other Forecasting Options for Allegiant Travel

For every potential investor in Allegiant, whether a beginner or expert, Allegiant Travel's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Allegiant Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Allegiant. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Allegiant Travel's price trends.

Allegiant Travel Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Allegiant Travel stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Allegiant Travel could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Allegiant Travel by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Allegiant Travel Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Allegiant Travel's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Allegiant Travel's current price.

Allegiant Travel Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Allegiant Travel stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Allegiant Travel shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Allegiant Travel stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Allegiant Travel entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Allegiant Travel Risk Indicators

The analysis of Allegiant Travel's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Allegiant Travel's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting allegiant stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Allegiant Travel

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Allegiant Travel position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Allegiant Travel will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Allegiant Stock

  0.88DAL Delta Air Lines Financial Report 11th of July 2024 PairCorr
  0.84SKYW SkyWestPairCorr
  0.77VLRS VolarisPairCorr
  0.74ALK Alaska Air Group Financial Report 23rd of July 2024 PairCorr
  0.72UAL United Airlines Holdings Earnings Call TomorrowPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Allegiant Travel could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Allegiant Travel when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Allegiant Travel - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Allegiant Travel to buy it.
The correlation of Allegiant Travel is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Allegiant Travel moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Allegiant Travel moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Allegiant Travel can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Allegiant Travel is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Allegiant Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Allegiant Travel Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Allegiant Travel Stock:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Allegiant Travel to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Allegiant Stock please use our How to Invest in Allegiant Travel guide.
Note that the Allegiant Travel information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Allegiant Travel's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.

Complementary Tools for Allegiant Stock analysis

When running Allegiant Travel's price analysis, check to measure Allegiant Travel's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Allegiant Travel is operating at the current time. Most of Allegiant Travel's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Allegiant Travel's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Allegiant Travel's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Allegiant Travel to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Global Correlations
Find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets
ETF Categories
List of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments
Stocks Directory
Find actively traded stocks across global markets
Content Syndication
Quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal
Stock Screener
Find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook.
Is Allegiant Travel's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Allegiant Travel. If investors know Allegiant will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Allegiant Travel listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
18.984
Dividend Share
1.8
Earnings Share
3.13
Revenue Per Share
140.438
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.01
The market value of Allegiant Travel is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Allegiant that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Allegiant Travel's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Allegiant Travel's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Allegiant Travel's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Allegiant Travel's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Allegiant Travel's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Allegiant Travel is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Allegiant Travel's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.