Oaktree Specialty Lending Stock Price Prediction
| OCSL Stock | USD 16.34 0.06 0.37% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
46
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.97) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.5617 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.2281 | EPS Estimate Next Year 2.2268 | Wall Street Target Price 16.9167 |
Using Oaktree Specialty hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Oaktree Specialty Lending from the perspective of Oaktree Specialty response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Oaktree Specialty to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Oaktree because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Oaktree Specialty after-hype prediction price | USD 16.34 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Oaktree |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Oaktree Specialty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Oaktree Specialty After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Oaktree Specialty at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Oaktree Specialty or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Oaktree Specialty, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Oaktree Specialty Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Oaktree Specialty's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Oaktree Specialty's historical news coverage. Oaktree Specialty's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.33 and 17.35, respectively. We have considered Oaktree Specialty's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Oaktree Specialty is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Oaktree Specialty Lending is based on 3 months time horizon.
Oaktree Specialty Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Oaktree Specialty is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Oaktree Specialty backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Oaktree Specialty, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 1.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 6 Events / Month | 11 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
16.34 | 16.34 | 0.00 |
|
Oaktree Specialty Hype Timeline
Oaktree Specialty Lending is now traded for 16.34. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. Oaktree is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Oaktree Specialty is about 149.47%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.33. About 36.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.9. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Oaktree Specialty Lending has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.93. The entity last dividend was issued on the 16th of September 2024. The firm had 1:3 split on the 23rd of January 2023. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Oaktree Specialty Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Oaktree Specialty Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Oaktree Specialty's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Oaktree Specialty's future price movements. Getting to know how Oaktree Specialty's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Oaktree Specialty may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Oaktree Specialty Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Oaktree price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Oaktree using various technical indicators. When you analyze Oaktree charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Oaktree Specialty Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Oaktree Specialty stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Oaktree Specialty Lending, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Oaktree Specialty based on analysis of Oaktree Specialty hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Oaktree Specialty's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Oaktree Specialty's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.13 | 0.0781 | Price To Sales Ratio | 3.79 | 3.6 |
Story Coverage note for Oaktree Specialty
The number of cover stories for Oaktree Specialty depends on current market conditions and Oaktree Specialty's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Oaktree Specialty is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Oaktree Specialty's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Oaktree Specialty Short Properties
Oaktree Specialty's future price predictability will typically decrease when Oaktree Specialty's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Oaktree Specialty Lending often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Oaktree Specialty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Oaktree Specialty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 80.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 64 M |
Check out Oaktree Specialty Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.
Is Asset Management & Custody Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Oaktree Specialty. If investors know Oaktree will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Oaktree Specialty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.97) | Earnings Share 0.72 | Revenue Per Share 4.913 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.07) | Return On Assets 0.0575 |
The market value of Oaktree Specialty Lending is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Oaktree that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Oaktree Specialty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Oaktree Specialty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Oaktree Specialty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Oaktree Specialty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Oaktree Specialty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Oaktree Specialty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Oaktree Specialty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.