Murphy Oil Stock Price Prediction
| MUR Stock | USD 33.73 0.94 2.87% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
35
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.34 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.23 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.55 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.59 | Wall Street Target Price 47.13 |
Using Murphy Oil hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Murphy Oil from the perspective of Murphy Oil response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Murphy Oil Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Murphy Oil's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Murphy. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Murphy can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Murphy Oil. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Murphy Oil's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Murphy Oil.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Murphy Oil to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Murphy because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Murphy Oil after-hype prediction price | USD 33.84 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Murphy |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Murphy Oil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Murphy Oil After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Murphy Oil at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Murphy Oil or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Murphy Oil, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Murphy Oil Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Murphy Oil's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Murphy Oil's historical news coverage. Murphy Oil's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 31.98 and 35.70, respectively. We have considered Murphy Oil's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Murphy Oil is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Murphy Oil is based on 3 months time horizon.
Murphy Oil Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Murphy Oil is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Murphy Oil backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Murphy Oil, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.28 | 1.86 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 7 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
33.73 | 33.84 | 0.33 |
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Murphy Oil Hype Timeline
On the 30th of September Murphy Oil is traded for 33.73. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.11, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.06. Murphy is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 33.84 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 0.33%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.28%. The volatility of related hype on Murphy Oil is about 858.46%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 33.79. The company reported the last year's revenue of 3.46 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 723.68 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 3.04 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Murphy Oil Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Murphy Oil Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Murphy Oil's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Murphy Oil's future price movements. Getting to know how Murphy Oil's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Murphy Oil may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EPM | Evolution Petroleum | 0.01 | 8 per month | 2.32 | (0.01) | 3.70 | (4.00) | 20.30 | |
| REI | Ring Energy | (0.08) | 11 per month | 3.28 | (0.02) | 5.08 | (5.81) | 17.21 | |
| CHK | Chesapeake Energy Corp | 1.77 | 9 per month | 1.45 | (0.07) | 2.63 | (2.45) | 5.88 | |
| AR | Antero Resources Corp | (0.53) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 3.77 | (4.91) | 11.66 | |
| EQT | EQT Corporation | (0.41) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.24 | (2.65) | 8.17 | |
| CRK | Comstock Resources | 0.54 | 11 per month | 3.49 | (0) | 5.39 | (5.86) | 17.45 |
Murphy Oil Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Murphy price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Murphy using various technical indicators. When you analyze Murphy charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Murphy Oil Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Murphy Oil stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Murphy Oil, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Murphy Oil based on analysis of Murphy Oil hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Murphy Oil's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Murphy Oil's related companies. | 2021 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0192 | 0.0258 | 0.0238 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.44 | 1.91 | 2.01 |
Story Coverage note for Murphy Oil
The number of cover stories for Murphy Oil depends on current market conditions and Murphy Oil's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Murphy Oil is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Murphy Oil's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Murphy Oil Short Properties
Murphy Oil's future price predictability will typically decrease when Murphy Oil's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Murphy Oil often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Murphy Oil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Murphy Oil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 156.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 317.1 M |
Additional Tools for Murphy Stock Analysis
When running Murphy Oil's price analysis, check to measure Murphy Oil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Murphy Oil is operating at the current time. Most of Murphy Oil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Murphy Oil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Murphy Oil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Murphy Oil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.