Grupo Aval Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 2.06

AVAL Stock  USD 2.06  0.02  0.98%   
Grupo Aval's future price is the expected price of Grupo Aval instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Grupo Aval performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Grupo Aval Backtesting, Grupo Aval Valuation, Grupo Aval Correlation, Grupo Aval Hype Analysis, Grupo Aval Volatility, Grupo Aval History as well as Grupo Aval Performance.
For more information on how to buy Grupo Stock please use our How to buy in Grupo Stock guide.
  
At this time, Grupo Aval's Price Sales Ratio is quite stable compared to the past year. Please specify Grupo Aval's target price for which you would like Grupo Aval odds to be computed.

Grupo Aval Target Price Odds to finish over 2.06

The tendency of Grupo Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 2.06 90 days 2.06 
about 43.08
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Grupo Aval to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 43.08 (This Grupo Aval probability density function shows the probability of Grupo Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Grupo Aval has a beta of 0.32. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Grupo Aval average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Grupo Aval will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Grupo Aval has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Grupo Aval Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Grupo Aval

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Grupo Aval. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.682.043.40
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1.172.533.89
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.611.973.33
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
2.733.003.33
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Grupo Aval. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Grupo Aval's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Grupo Aval's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Grupo Aval.

Grupo Aval Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Grupo Aval is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Grupo Aval's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Grupo Aval, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Grupo Aval within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.0006
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.32
σ
Overall volatility
0.06
Ir
Information ratio -0.01

Grupo Aval Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Grupo Aval for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Grupo Aval can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
On 9th of December 2024 Grupo Aval paid $ 0.0095 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Grupo Aval Expands Financial Services with Strategic Acquisitions and New Incorporation - TipRanks

Grupo Aval Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Grupo Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Grupo Aval's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Grupo Aval's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding23.7 B
Cash And Short Term Investments8.4 T

Grupo Aval Technical Analysis

Grupo Aval's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Grupo Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Grupo Aval. In general, you should focus on analyzing Grupo Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Grupo Aval Predictive Forecast Models

Grupo Aval's time-series forecasting models is one of many Grupo Aval's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Grupo Aval's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Grupo Aval

Checking the ongoing alerts about Grupo Aval for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Grupo Aval help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
On 9th of December 2024 Grupo Aval paid $ 0.0095 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Grupo Aval Expands Financial Services with Strategic Acquisitions and New Incorporation - TipRanks
When determining whether Grupo Aval is a strong investment it is important to analyze Grupo Aval's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Grupo Aval's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Grupo Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Grupo Aval Backtesting, Grupo Aval Valuation, Grupo Aval Correlation, Grupo Aval Hype Analysis, Grupo Aval Volatility, Grupo Aval History as well as Grupo Aval Performance.
For more information on how to buy Grupo Stock please use our How to buy in Grupo Stock guide.
You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Is Diversified Banks space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Grupo Aval. If investors know Grupo will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Grupo Aval listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.229
Earnings Share
0.16
Revenue Per Share
9.1 K
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.03)
Return On Assets
0.0052
The market value of Grupo Aval is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Grupo that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Grupo Aval's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Grupo Aval's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Grupo Aval's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Grupo Aval's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Grupo Aval's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Grupo Aval is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Grupo Aval's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.