FarGlory Hotel (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 30.20
| 2712 Stock | TWD 30.20 0.30 1.00% |
FarGlory |
FarGlory Hotel Target Price Odds to finish over 30.20
The tendency of FarGlory Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move above the current price in 90 days |
| 30.20 | 90 days | 30.20 | about 73.62 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of FarGlory Hotel to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 73.62 (This FarGlory Hotel Co probability density function shows the probability of FarGlory Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon FarGlory Hotel Co has a beta of -0.23. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding FarGlory Hotel are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, FarGlory Hotel Co is likely to outperform the market. Additionally FarGlory Hotel Co has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. FarGlory Hotel Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for FarGlory Hotel
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FarGlory Hotel. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of FarGlory Hotel's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
FarGlory Hotel Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. FarGlory Hotel is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the FarGlory Hotel's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold FarGlory Hotel Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of FarGlory Hotel within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.23 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.76 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
FarGlory Hotel Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of FarGlory Hotel for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for FarGlory Hotel can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| FarGlory Hotel generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| FarGlory Hotel Co has accumulated 35.7 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 9.6, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. FarGlory Hotel has a current ratio of 0.24, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist FarGlory Hotel until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, FarGlory Hotel's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like FarGlory Hotel sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for FarGlory to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about FarGlory Hotel's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 350.97 M. Net Loss for the year was (20.74 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 68.05 M. | |
| About 89.0% of FarGlory Hotel shares are owned by insiders or employees |
FarGlory Hotel Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of FarGlory Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential FarGlory Hotel's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. FarGlory Hotel's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 105 M |
FarGlory Hotel Technical Analysis
FarGlory Hotel's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. FarGlory Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of FarGlory Hotel Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing FarGlory Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
FarGlory Hotel Predictive Forecast Models
FarGlory Hotel's time-series forecasting models is one of many FarGlory Hotel's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary FarGlory Hotel's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about FarGlory Hotel
Checking the ongoing alerts about FarGlory Hotel for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for FarGlory Hotel help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| FarGlory Hotel generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| FarGlory Hotel Co has accumulated 35.7 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 9.6, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. FarGlory Hotel has a current ratio of 0.24, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist FarGlory Hotel until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, FarGlory Hotel's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like FarGlory Hotel sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for FarGlory to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about FarGlory Hotel's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 350.97 M. Net Loss for the year was (20.74 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 68.05 M. | |
| About 89.0% of FarGlory Hotel shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for FarGlory Stock Analysis
When running FarGlory Hotel's price analysis, check to measure FarGlory Hotel's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy FarGlory Hotel is operating at the current time. Most of FarGlory Hotel's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of FarGlory Hotel's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move FarGlory Hotel's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of FarGlory Hotel to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.