GeneFerm Biotechnology (Taiwan) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 49.76
| 1796 Stock | TWD 46.25 1.35 2.84% |
GeneFerm |
GeneFerm Biotechnology Target Price Odds to finish below 49.76
The tendency of GeneFerm Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under NT$ 49.76 after 90 days |
| 46.25 | 90 days | 49.76 | about 12.03 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of GeneFerm Biotechnology to stay under NT$ 49.76 after 90 days from now is about 12.03 (This GeneFerm Biotechnology Co probability density function shows the probability of GeneFerm Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of GeneFerm Biotechnology price to stay between its current price of NT$ 46.25 and NT$ 49.76 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.19 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon GeneFerm Biotechnology has a beta of 0.73. This suggests as returns on the market go up, GeneFerm Biotechnology average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding GeneFerm Biotechnology Co will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally GeneFerm Biotechnology Co has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. GeneFerm Biotechnology Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for GeneFerm Biotechnology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as GeneFerm Biotechnology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of GeneFerm Biotechnology's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
GeneFerm Biotechnology Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. GeneFerm Biotechnology is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the GeneFerm Biotechnology's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold GeneFerm Biotechnology Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of GeneFerm Biotechnology within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.5 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.73 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.93 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.24 |
GeneFerm Biotechnology Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of GeneFerm Biotechnology for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for GeneFerm Biotechnology can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| GeneFerm Biotechnology generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 57.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
GeneFerm Biotechnology Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of GeneFerm Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential GeneFerm Biotechnology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. GeneFerm Biotechnology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 40.8 M |
GeneFerm Biotechnology Technical Analysis
GeneFerm Biotechnology's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. GeneFerm Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of GeneFerm Biotechnology Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing GeneFerm Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
GeneFerm Biotechnology Predictive Forecast Models
GeneFerm Biotechnology's time-series forecasting models is one of many GeneFerm Biotechnology's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary GeneFerm Biotechnology's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about GeneFerm Biotechnology
Checking the ongoing alerts about GeneFerm Biotechnology for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for GeneFerm Biotechnology help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| GeneFerm Biotechnology generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 57.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Additional Tools for GeneFerm Stock Analysis
When running GeneFerm Biotechnology's price analysis, check to measure GeneFerm Biotechnology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy GeneFerm Biotechnology is operating at the current time. Most of GeneFerm Biotechnology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of GeneFerm Biotechnology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move GeneFerm Biotechnology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of GeneFerm Biotechnology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.