QUALCOMM Incorporated Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| QCOM Stock | 21.63 0.43 2.03% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of QUALCOMM Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 21.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.17. QUALCOMM Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast QUALCOMM Incorporated stock prices and determine the direction of QUALCOMM Incorporated's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of QUALCOMM Incorporated's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
QUALCOMM |
QUALCOMM Incorporated Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of QUALCOMM Incorporated on the next trading day is expected to be 21.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34, mean absolute percentage error of 0.18, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20.17.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict QUALCOMM Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that QUALCOMM Incorporated's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
QUALCOMM Incorporated Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest QUALCOMM Incorporated | QUALCOMM Incorporated Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
QUALCOMM Incorporated Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting QUALCOMM Incorporated's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. QUALCOMM Incorporated's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19.85 and 23.92, respectively. We have considered QUALCOMM Incorporated's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of QUALCOMM Incorporated stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent QUALCOMM Incorporated stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.696 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3418 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0153 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 20.1654 |
Predictive Modules for QUALCOMM Incorporated
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as QUALCOMM Incorporated. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for QUALCOMM Incorporated
For every potential investor in QUALCOMM, whether a beginner or expert, QUALCOMM Incorporated's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. QUALCOMM Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in QUALCOMM. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying QUALCOMM Incorporated's price trends.QUALCOMM Incorporated Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with QUALCOMM Incorporated stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of QUALCOMM Incorporated could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing QUALCOMM Incorporated by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
QUALCOMM Incorporated Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of QUALCOMM Incorporated's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of QUALCOMM Incorporated's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
QUALCOMM Incorporated Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how QUALCOMM Incorporated stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading QUALCOMM Incorporated shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying QUALCOMM Incorporated stock market strength indicators, traders can identify QUALCOMM Incorporated entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
QUALCOMM Incorporated Risk Indicators
The analysis of QUALCOMM Incorporated's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in QUALCOMM Incorporated's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting qualcomm stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.57 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.04 | |||
| Variance | 4.15 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with QUALCOMM Incorporated
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if QUALCOMM Incorporated position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in QUALCOMM Incorporated will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with QUALCOMM Stock
Moving against QUALCOMM Stock
| 0.61 | COST | Costco Wholesale Corp Earnings Call Tomorrow | PairCorr |
| 0.57 | WMT | Walmart Inc CDR | PairCorr |
| 0.43 | BN | Brookfield | PairCorr |
| 0.41 | AMZN | Amazon CDR | PairCorr |
| 0.41 | JPM | JPMorgan Chase | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to QUALCOMM Incorporated could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace QUALCOMM Incorporated when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back QUALCOMM Incorporated - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling QUALCOMM Incorporated to buy it.
The correlation of QUALCOMM Incorporated is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as QUALCOMM Incorporated moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if QUALCOMM Incorporated moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for QUALCOMM Incorporated can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of QUALCOMM Incorporated to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade QUALCOMM Stock refer to our How to Trade QUALCOMM Stock guide.You can also try the ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world.