INDIVIOR PLC Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| INVVYDelisted Stock | USD 21.85 0.20 0.92% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of INDIVIOR PLC ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 24.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 85.59. INDIVIOR Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
INDIVIOR |
Most investors in INDIVIOR PLC cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the INDIVIOR PLC's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets INDIVIOR PLC's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for INDIVIOR PLC is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of INDIVIOR PLC ADR value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. INDIVIOR PLC Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of June
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of INDIVIOR PLC ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 24.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.40, mean absolute percentage error of 3.67, and the sum of the absolute errors of 85.59.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict INDIVIOR Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that INDIVIOR PLC's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
INDIVIOR PLC Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
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Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of INDIVIOR PLC pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent INDIVIOR PLC pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.4102 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4031 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0592 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 85.5864 |
Predictive Modules for INDIVIOR PLC
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as INDIVIOR PLC ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of INDIVIOR PLC's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
View INDIVIOR PLC Related Equities
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
INDIVIOR PLC Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how INDIVIOR PLC pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading INDIVIOR PLC shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying INDIVIOR PLC pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify INDIVIOR PLC ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
INDIVIOR PLC Risk Indicators
The analysis of INDIVIOR PLC's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in INDIVIOR PLC's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting indivior pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.45 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 7.43 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 8.68 | |||
| Variance | 75.31 | |||
| Downside Variance | 65.66 | |||
| Semi Variance | 55.24 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (6.08) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Check out Risk vs Return Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in real. You can also try the Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Other Consideration for investing in INDIVIOR Pink Sheet
If you are still planning to invest in INDIVIOR PLC ADR check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the INDIVIOR PLC's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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