Materials Petroleum Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

COM Stock   27,650  0.00  0.00%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Materials Petroleum JSC on the next trading day is expected to be 29,456 with a mean absolute deviation of 1,211 and the sum of the absolute errors of 73,881. Materials Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Materials Petroleum price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Materials Petroleum Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Materials Petroleum JSC on the next trading day is expected to be 29,456 with a mean absolute deviation of 1,211, mean absolute percentage error of 3,156,002, and the sum of the absolute errors of 73,881.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Materials Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Materials Petroleum's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Materials Petroleum Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Materials PetroleumMaterials Petroleum Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Materials Petroleum Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Materials Petroleum's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Materials Petroleum's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 29,452 and 29,460, respectively. We have considered Materials Petroleum's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
27,650
29,452
Downside
29,456
Expected Value
29,460
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Materials Petroleum stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Materials Petroleum stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria133.0753
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1211.1687
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0401
SAESum of the absolute errors73881.2903
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Materials Petroleum JSC historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Materials Petroleum

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Materials Petroleum JSC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
27,64627,65027,654
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
24,80824,81230,415
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Materials Petroleum

For every potential investor in Materials, whether a beginner or expert, Materials Petroleum's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Materials Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Materials. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Materials Petroleum's price trends.

Materials Petroleum Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Materials Petroleum stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Materials Petroleum could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Materials Petroleum by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Materials Petroleum JSC Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Materials Petroleum's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Materials Petroleum's current price.

Materials Petroleum Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Materials Petroleum stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Materials Petroleum shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Materials Petroleum stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Materials Petroleum JSC entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Materials Petroleum Risk Indicators

The analysis of Materials Petroleum's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Materials Petroleum's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting materials stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Materials Petroleum

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Materials Petroleum position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Materials Petroleum will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against Materials Stock

  0.39JVC Japan Vietnam MedicalPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Materials Petroleum could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Materials Petroleum when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Materials Petroleum - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Materials Petroleum JSC to buy it.
The correlation of Materials Petroleum is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Materials Petroleum moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Materials Petroleum JSC moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Materials Petroleum can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Other Information on Investing in Materials Stock

Materials Petroleum financial ratios help investors to determine whether Materials Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Materials with respect to the benefits of owning Materials Petroleum security.