Caravelle International Stock Forecast - 20 Period Moving Average
| CACO Stock | 0.83 0.02 2.35% |
The 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Caravelle International Group on the next trading day is expected to be 0.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.69. Caravelle Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Caravelle International's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Caravelle International's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Caravelle International fundamentals over time.
Caravelle |
Most investors in Caravelle International cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Caravelle International's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Caravelle International's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A commonly used 20-period moving average forecast model for Caravelle International Group is based on a synthetically constructed Caravelle Internationaldaily price series in which the value for a trading day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for 20 of preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited for price series data that changes over time. Caravelle International 20 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 28th of June
Given 90 days horizon, the 20 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Caravelle International Group on the next trading day is expected to be 0.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.69.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Caravelle Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Caravelle International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Caravelle International Stock Forecast Pattern
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Caravelle International Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Caravelle International's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Caravelle International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.01 and 10.14, respectively. We have considered Caravelle International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 20 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Caravelle International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Caravelle International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 77.2509 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0038 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1143 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.125 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.6875 |
Predictive Modules for Caravelle International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Caravelle International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Caravelle International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Caravelle International
For every potential investor in Caravelle, whether a beginner or expert, Caravelle International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Caravelle Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Caravelle. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Caravelle International's price trends.Caravelle International Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Caravelle International stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Caravelle International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Caravelle International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Caravelle International Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Caravelle International's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Caravelle International's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Caravelle International Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Caravelle International stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Caravelle International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Caravelle International stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Caravelle International Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Caravelle International Risk Indicators
The analysis of Caravelle International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Caravelle International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting caravelle stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.59 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 5.5 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 8.89 | |||
| Variance | 78.96 | |||
| Downside Variance | 40.64 | |||
| Semi Variance | 30.2 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (7.63) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectAdditional Information and Resources on Investing in Caravelle Stock
When determining whether Caravelle International offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Caravelle International's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Caravelle International Group Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Caravelle International Group Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Caravelle International to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.
Is Marine Transportation space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Caravelle International. If investors know Caravelle will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Caravelle International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (1.00) | Earnings Share 0.04 | Revenue Per Share 2.676 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.53) | Return On Assets 0.0748 |
The market value of Caravelle International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Caravelle that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Caravelle International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Caravelle International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Caravelle International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Caravelle International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Caravelle International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Caravelle International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Caravelle International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.