Calvert Aggressive Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Moving Average

CAAAX Fund  USD 28.40  0.12  0.42%   
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Calvert Aggressive Allocation on the next trading day is expected to be 28.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.11. Calvert Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A two period moving average forecast for Calvert Aggressive is based on an daily price series in which the stock price on a given day is replaced by the mean of that price and the preceding price. This model is best suited to price patterns experiencing average volatility.

Calvert Aggressive Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 6th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Calvert Aggressive Allocation on the next trading day is expected to be 28.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.11.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Calvert Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Calvert Aggressive's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Calvert Aggressive Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Calvert Aggressive Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Calvert Aggressive's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Calvert Aggressive's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 27.85 and 28.95, respectively. We have considered Calvert Aggressive's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
28.40
28.40
Expected Value
28.95
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Calvert Aggressive mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Calvert Aggressive mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria110.9316
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0344
MADMean absolute deviation0.1375
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.005
SAESum of the absolute errors8.11
The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Calvert Aggressive Allocation price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Calvert Aggressive. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future

Predictive Modules for Calvert Aggressive

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Calvert Aggressive. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
27.8328.4028.97
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
27.6328.2028.77
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
27.7328.0328.34
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Calvert Aggressive. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Calvert Aggressive's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Calvert Aggressive's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Calvert Aggressive.

Other Forecasting Options for Calvert Aggressive

For every potential investor in Calvert, whether a beginner or expert, Calvert Aggressive's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Calvert Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Calvert. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Calvert Aggressive's price trends.

Calvert Aggressive Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Calvert Aggressive mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Calvert Aggressive could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Calvert Aggressive by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Calvert Aggressive Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Calvert Aggressive's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Calvert Aggressive's current price.

Calvert Aggressive Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Calvert Aggressive mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Calvert Aggressive shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Calvert Aggressive mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Calvert Aggressive Allocation entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Calvert Aggressive Risk Indicators

The analysis of Calvert Aggressive's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Calvert Aggressive's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting calvert mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Calvert Mutual Fund

Calvert Aggressive financial ratios help investors to determine whether Calvert Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Calvert with respect to the benefits of owning Calvert Aggressive security.
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