Bank Mandiri Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BMRI Stock | IDR 5,875 50.00 0.84% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bank Mandiri Persero on the next trading day is expected to be 5,842 with a mean absolute deviation of 146.71 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8,950. Bank Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Bank |
Most investors in Bank Mandiri cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Bank Mandiri's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Bank Mandiri's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Bank Mandiri is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Bank Mandiri Persero value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Bank Mandiri Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of June
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Bank Mandiri Persero on the next trading day is expected to be 5,842 with a mean absolute deviation of 146.71, mean absolute percentage error of 30,826, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8,950.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Bank Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Bank Mandiri's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Bank Mandiri Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Bank Mandiri | Bank Mandiri Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Bank Mandiri Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Bank Mandiri's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Bank Mandiri's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5,840 and 5,845, respectively. We have considered Bank Mandiri's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Bank Mandiri stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Bank Mandiri stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 128.4466 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 146.714 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0228 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8949.5547 |
Predictive Modules for Bank Mandiri
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Bank Mandiri Persero. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bank Mandiri's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Bank Mandiri
For every potential investor in Bank, whether a beginner or expert, Bank Mandiri's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Bank Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Bank. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Bank Mandiri's price trends.Bank Mandiri Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Bank Mandiri stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Bank Mandiri could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Bank Mandiri by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Bank Mandiri Persero Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Bank Mandiri's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Bank Mandiri's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Bank Mandiri Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Bank Mandiri stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Bank Mandiri shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Bank Mandiri stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Bank Mandiri Persero entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 2.1 M | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.29) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 5937.5 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 5916.67 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (87.50) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (50.00) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 48.76 |
Bank Mandiri Risk Indicators
The analysis of Bank Mandiri's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Bank Mandiri's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting bank stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.77 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.33 | |||
| Variance | 5.43 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis
Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Bank Mandiri Persero using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.Build Optimal Portfolios
Align your risk with return expectations
Other Information on Investing in Bank Stock
Bank Mandiri financial ratios help investors to determine whether Bank Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Bank with respect to the benefits of owning Bank Mandiri security.