Mnc Kapital Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| BCAP Stock | IDR 37.00 3.00 8.82% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Mnc Kapital Indonesia on the next trading day is expected to be 46.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.89 and the sum of the absolute errors of 115.19. Mnc Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Mnc |
Most investors in Mnc Kapital cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Mnc Kapital's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Mnc Kapital's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Mnc Kapital is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Mnc Kapital Indonesia value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Mnc Kapital Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of June
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Mnc Kapital Indonesia on the next trading day is expected to be 46.44 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.89, mean absolute percentage error of 5.35, and the sum of the absolute errors of 115.19.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mnc Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mnc Kapital's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mnc Kapital Stock Forecast Pattern
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Mnc Kapital Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Mnc Kapital's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mnc Kapital's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 41.88 and 51.00, respectively. We have considered Mnc Kapital's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mnc Kapital stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mnc Kapital stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.7884 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.8884 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0471 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 115.1905 |
Predictive Modules for Mnc Kapital
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mnc Kapital Indonesia. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mnc Kapital's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Mnc Kapital
For every potential investor in Mnc, whether a beginner or expert, Mnc Kapital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mnc Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mnc. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mnc Kapital's price trends.Mnc Kapital Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mnc Kapital stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mnc Kapital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mnc Kapital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Mnc Kapital Indonesia Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Mnc Kapital's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Mnc Kapital's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Mnc Kapital Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mnc Kapital stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mnc Kapital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mnc Kapital stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Mnc Kapital Indonesia entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 615833.0 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (1.50) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.92 | |||
| Day Median Price | 35.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 34.67 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (2.50) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (3.00) |
Mnc Kapital Risk Indicators
The analysis of Mnc Kapital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mnc Kapital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mnc stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.15 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.01 | |||
| Variance | 16.05 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Other Information on Investing in Mnc Stock
Mnc Kapital financial ratios help investors to determine whether Mnc Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Mnc with respect to the benefits of owning Mnc Kapital security.