AmTrust Financial Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AFSIN Stock | USD 13.51 0.06 0.45% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AmTrust Financial Services on the next trading day is expected to be 13.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.35. AmTrust Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
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AmTrust Financial Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of September
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of AmTrust Financial Services on the next trading day is expected to be 13.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.35.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AmTrust Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AmTrust Financial's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
AmTrust Financial Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
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AmTrust Financial Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting AmTrust Financial's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AmTrust Financial's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.10 and 15.87, respectively. We have considered AmTrust Financial's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AmTrust Financial pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AmTrust Financial pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.6139 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0545 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1559 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0117 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.3526 |
Predictive Modules for AmTrust Financial
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AmTrust Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AmTrust Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for AmTrust Financial
For every potential investor in AmTrust, whether a beginner or expert, AmTrust Financial's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AmTrust Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AmTrust. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AmTrust Financial's price trends.AmTrust Financial Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AmTrust Financial pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AmTrust Financial could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AmTrust Financial by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AmTrust Financial Technical and Predictive Analytics
The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of AmTrust Financial's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of AmTrust Financial's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
AmTrust Financial Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how AmTrust Financial pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading AmTrust Financial shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying AmTrust Financial pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify AmTrust Financial Services entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 13.51 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 13.51 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.03 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.06 |
AmTrust Financial Risk Indicators
The analysis of AmTrust Financial's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AmTrust Financial's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting amtrust pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.38 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.01 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.44 | |||
| Variance | 5.97 | |||
| Downside Variance | 9.38 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.04 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.00) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Pair Trading with AmTrust Financial
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if AmTrust Financial position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in AmTrust Financial will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with AmTrust Pink Sheet
| 0.73 | PGR | Progressive Corp Fiscal Year End 22nd of January 2025 | PairCorr |
| 0.73 | CB | Chubb | PairCorr |
| 0.67 | TRV | The Travelers Companies Fiscal Year End 17th of January 2025 | PairCorr |
| 0.74 | ALL | Allstate | PairCorr |
| 0.77 | TKOMY | Tokio Marine Holdings Downward Rally | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to AmTrust Financial could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace AmTrust Financial when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back AmTrust Financial - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling AmTrust Financial Services to buy it.
The correlation of AmTrust Financial is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as AmTrust Financial moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if AmTrust Financial moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for AmTrust Financial can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Other Information on Investing in AmTrust Pink Sheet
AmTrust Financial financial ratios help investors to determine whether AmTrust Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in AmTrust with respect to the benefits of owning AmTrust Financial security.