Jiangsu Yueda Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

600805 Stock   4.85  0.12  2.41%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Jiangsu Yueda Investment on the next trading day is expected to be 4.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.74. Jiangsu Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Jiangsu Yueda stock prices and determine the direction of Jiangsu Yueda Investment's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Jiangsu Yueda's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
At present, Jiangsu Yueda's Total Assets are projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Total Current Liabilities is expected to grow to about 3.3 B, whereas Other Current Liabilities is forecasted to decline to about 48 M.
Triple exponential smoothing for Jiangsu Yueda - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Jiangsu Yueda prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Jiangsu Yueda price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Jiangsu Yueda Investment.

Jiangsu Yueda Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Jiangsu Yueda Investment on the next trading day is expected to be 4.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.74.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Jiangsu Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Jiangsu Yueda's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Jiangsu Yueda Stock Forecast Pattern

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Jiangsu Yueda Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Jiangsu Yueda's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Jiangsu Yueda's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.87 and 7.86, respectively. We have considered Jiangsu Yueda's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
4.85
4.87
Expected Value
7.86
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Jiangsu Yueda stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Jiangsu Yueda stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0189
MADMean absolute deviation0.0973
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0228
SAESum of the absolute errors5.7431
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Jiangsu Yueda observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Jiangsu Yueda Investment observations.

Predictive Modules for Jiangsu Yueda

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Jiangsu Yueda Investment. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2.025.018.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.833.826.81
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Jiangsu Yueda

For every potential investor in Jiangsu, whether a beginner or expert, Jiangsu Yueda's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Jiangsu Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Jiangsu. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Jiangsu Yueda's price trends.

Jiangsu Yueda Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Jiangsu Yueda stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Jiangsu Yueda could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Jiangsu Yueda by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Jiangsu Yueda Investment Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Jiangsu Yueda's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Jiangsu Yueda's current price.

Jiangsu Yueda Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Jiangsu Yueda stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Jiangsu Yueda shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Jiangsu Yueda stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Jiangsu Yueda Investment entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Jiangsu Yueda Risk Indicators

The analysis of Jiangsu Yueda's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Jiangsu Yueda's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting jiangsu stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Jiangsu Stock

Jiangsu Yueda financial ratios help investors to determine whether Jiangsu Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Jiangsu with respect to the benefits of owning Jiangsu Yueda security.