Rli Corp Stock Price Prediction
| RLI Stock | USD 148.77 1.31 0.89% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
57
Oversold | Overbought |
RLI Corp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of RLI Corp shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of RLI Corp's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of RLI Corp and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from RLI Corp's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with RLI Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of RLI Corp based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The RLI stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on RLI Corp over a specific investment horizon. Using RLI Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of RLI Corp from the perspective of RLI Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in RLI Corp. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in RLI Corp to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying RLI because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
RLI Corp after-hype prediction price | USD 148.77 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
RLI |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of RLI Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
RLI Corp After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of RLI Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in RLI Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of RLI Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
RLI Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting RLI Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on RLI Corp's historical news coverage. RLI Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 147.70 and 149.84, respectively. We have considered RLI Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
RLI Corp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of RLI Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.
RLI Corp Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as RLI Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading RLI Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with RLI Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.08 | 1.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Within a week |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
148.77 | 148.77 | 0.00 |
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RLI Corp Hype Timeline
On the 20th of May RLI Corp is traded for 148.77. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. RLI is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on RLI Corp is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 148.77. About 81.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of RLI Corp was at this time reported as 33.27. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.23. RLI Corp last dividend was issued on the 31st of May 2024. The entity had 2:1 split on the 16th of January 2014. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be within a week. Check out RLI Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.RLI Corp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to RLI Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict RLI Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how RLI Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how RLI Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HMN | Horace Mann Educators | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.13 | (1.45) | 11.90 | |
| KMPR | Kemper | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.72 | (0.02) | 3.03 | (2.72) | 7.91 | |
| GBLI | Global Indemnity PLC | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.03 | 0.1 | 2.28 | (2.71) | 11.15 | |
| ARGO-PA | Argo Group International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.30 | (0.03) | 0.86 | (0.75) | 2.68 | |
| SIGI | Selective Insurance Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.76 | (1.81) | 8.34 | |
| DGICB | Donegal Group B | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.78 | (4.47) | 15.10 | |
| ARGO | Argo Group International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| STC | Stewart Information Services | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.65 | 0 | 2.51 | (2.08) | 10.71 |
RLI Corp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine RLI price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for RLI using various technical indicators. When you analyze RLI charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About RLI Corp Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of RLI Corp stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as RLI Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of RLI Corp based on analysis of RLI Corp hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to RLI Corp's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to RLI Corp's related companies. Story Coverage note for RLI Corp
The number of cover stories for RLI Corp depends on current market conditions and RLI Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that RLI Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about RLI Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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RLI Corp Short Properties
RLI Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when RLI Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of RLI Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential RLI Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. RLI Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 46.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1 B |
Check out RLI Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more detail on how to invest in RLI Stock please use our How to Invest in RLI Corp guide.You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.
Complementary Tools for RLI Stock analysis
When running RLI Corp's price analysis, check to measure RLI Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy RLI Corp is operating at the current time. Most of RLI Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of RLI Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move RLI Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of RLI Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Earnings Calls Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges | |
| Technical Analysis Check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data | |
| Money Flow Index Determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators | |
| Transaction History View history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance | |
| My Watchlist Analysis Analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like |
Is RLI Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of RLI Corp. If investors know RLI will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about RLI Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of RLI Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of RLI that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of RLI Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is RLI Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because RLI Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect RLI Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between RLI Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if RLI Corp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, RLI Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.