Timothy Small Cap Value Fund Volatility
| TPLNX Fund | USD 19.19 0.04 0.21% |
We consider Timothy Small-cap very steady. Timothy Small Cap owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0515, which indicates the fund had a 0.0515% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Timothy Small Cap Value, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please validate Timothy Small-cap's Semi Deviation of 0.9485, coefficient of variation of 1941.49, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0356 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.051%. Key indicators related to Timothy Small-cap's volatility include:
420 Days Market Risk | Chance Of Distress | 420 Days Economic Sensitivity |
Timothy Small-cap Mutual Fund volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of Timothy daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use Timothy's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of Timothy Small-cap volatility.
Timothy |
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as Timothy Small-cap can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of Timothy Small-cap at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase Timothy stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower your average cost per share, thereby improving your portfolio's performance when the markets normalize. Similarly, when the prices of Timothy Small-cap's stock rises, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Investing when markets are volatile with better valuations will accord both investors and companies the opportunity to generate better long-term returns.
Moving together with Timothy Mutual Fund
| 0.76 | VSMAX | Vanguard Small Cap | PairCorr |
| 0.76 | VSCIX | Vanguard Small Cap | PairCorr |
| 0.76 | VSCPX | Vanguard Small Cap | PairCorr |
| 0.76 | NAESX | Vanguard Small Cap | PairCorr |
| 0.76 | FSSNX | Fidelity Small Cap | PairCorr |
| 0.74 | PASVX | T Rowe Price | PairCorr |
| 0.73 | PRVIX | T Rowe Price | PairCorr |
Timothy Small-cap Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk
Timothy Small-cap's beta coefficient measures the volatility of Timothy mutual fund compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents Timothy mutual fund's returns against your selected market. In other words, Timothy Small-cap's beta of 1.21 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk Timothy Small-cap mutual fund can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. Timothy Small Cap Value has relatively low volatility with skewness of -0.18 and kurtosis of 1.01. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Timothy Small-cap's mutual fund risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Timothy Small-cap's mutual fund price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze Timothy Small Cap Demand TrendCheck current 90 days Timothy Small-cap correlation with market (NYSE Composite)Timothy Beta |
Timothy standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.
Standard Deviation | 0.99 |
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by Timothy Small-cap's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of Timothy Small-cap's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in timothy mutual fund tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in Timothy Small-cap.
Timothy Small Cap Mutual Fund Volatility Analysis
Volatility refers to the frequency at which Timothy Small-cap fund price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with Timothy Small-cap's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of Timothy Small-cap's mutual fund to predict their future moves. A fund that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A mutual fund with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile fund is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of Timothy Small-cap's volatility:
Historical Volatility
This type of fund volatility measures Timothy Small-cap's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict Timothy Small-cap's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the mutual fund.Implied Volatility
This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for Timothy Small-cap's current market price. This means that the fund will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on Timothy Small-cap's to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. Timothy Small Cap Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
Timothy Small-cap Projected Return Density Against Market
Assuming the 90 days horizon the mutual fund has the beta coefficient of 1.208 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Timothy Small-cap will likely underperform.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to Timothy Small-cap or Timothy Plan sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that Timothy Small-cap's price will be affected by overall mutual fund market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a Timothy fund's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
Timothy Small Cap Value has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Predicted Return Density |
| Returns |
What Drives a Timothy Small-cap Price Volatility?
Several factors can influence a fund's market volatility:Industry
Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.Political and Economic environment
When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.The Company's Performance
Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.Timothy Small-cap Mutual Fund Risk Measures
Assuming the 90 days horizon the coefficient of variation of Timothy Small-cap is 1941.49. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 0.98 and standard deviation of 0.99. The mean deviation of Timothy Small Cap Value is currently at 0.76. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (NYSE Composite) has volatility of 0.62
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.05 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.21 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.99 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
Timothy Small-cap Mutual Fund Return Volatility
Timothy Small-cap historical daily return volatility represents how much of Timothy Small-cap fund's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The fund shows 0.99% volatility of returns over 90 . By contrast, NYSE Composite accepts 0.5882% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Performance |
| Timeline |
About Timothy Small-cap Volatility
Volatility is a rate at which the price of Timothy Small-cap or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of Timothy Small-cap may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to Timothy's beta indicator, it measures the risk of Timothy Small-cap and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of Timothy Small-cap fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.3 ways to utilize Timothy Small-cap's volatility to invest better
Higher Timothy Small-cap's fund volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of Timothy Small Cap fund is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. Timothy Small Cap fund volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:- Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of Timothy Small Cap investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
- Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in Timothy Small-cap's fund can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
- Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of Timothy Small-cap's fund relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
Timothy Small-cap Investment Opportunity
Timothy Small Cap Value has a volatility of 0.99 and is 1.68 times more volatile than NYSE Composite. 8 percent of all equities and portfolios are less risky than Timothy Small-cap. You can use Timothy Small Cap Value to protect your portfolios against small market fluctuations. The mutual fund experiences a normal downward trend and little activity. Check odds of Timothy Small-cap to be traded at $19.0 in 90 days.Poor diversification
The correlation between Timothy Small Cap Value and NYA is 0.77 (i.e., Poor diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Timothy Small Cap Value and NYA in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.
Timothy Small-cap Additional Risk Indicators
The analysis of Timothy Small-cap's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Timothy Small-cap's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of Timothy Small-cap mutual fund's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0356 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0439 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 0.7583 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9485 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 1.03 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 1941.49 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.99 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential mutual funds, we recommend comparing similar funds with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Timothy Small-cap Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against Timothy Small-cap as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. Timothy Small-cap's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, Timothy Small-cap's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to Timothy Small Cap Value.
Check out World Market Map to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Timothy Small Cap Value. Also, note that the market value of any mutual fund could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors. You can also try the Competition Analyzer module to analyze and compare many basic indicators for a group of related or unrelated entities.