Moderna Stock Analysis

MRNA Stock  USD 107.97  1.79  1.69%   
Moderna is overvalued with Real Value of 86.79 and Target Price of 167.65. The main objective of Moderna stock analysis is to determine its intrinsic value, which is an estimate of what Moderna is worth, separate from its market price. There are two main types of Moderna's stock analysis: fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Fundamental analysis focuses on the financial and economic factors that affect Moderna's performance, such as revenue growth, earnings, and financial stability. Technical analysis, on the other hand, focuses on the price and volume data of Moderna's stock to identify patterns and trends that may indicate its future price movements.
The Moderna stock is traded in the USA on NASDAQ Exchange, with the market opening at 09:30:00 and closing at 16:00:00 every Mon,Tue,Wed,Thu,Fri except for officially observed holidays in the USA. Moderna is usually not traded on Thanksgiving Day, Christmas Day, New Year 's Day, Dr . Martin Luther King Jr 's Birthday, Washington 's Birthday, Good Friday, Memorial Day, Juneteenth Holiday, Independence Day, Labour Day. Moderna Stock trading window is adjusted to America/New York timezone. Here, you can get updates on important government artifacts, including earning estimates, SEC corporate filings, announcements, and Moderna's ongoing operational relationships across important fundamental and technical indicators.
  
Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Moderna. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors.
For information on how to trade Moderna Stock refer to our How to Trade Moderna Stock guide.

Moderna Stock Analysis Notes

About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Moderna was now reported as 36.27. The company recorded a loss per share of 12.33. Moderna had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 1:10 split on the 3rd of August 2017. Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers, develops, and commercializes messenger RNA therapeutics and vaccines for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and auto-immune diseases in the United States, Europe, and internationally. Moderna, Inc. was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Moderna operates under Biotechnology classification in the United States and is traded on NASDAQ Exchange. It employs 3700 people. To find out more about Moderna contact Stephane Bancel at 617 714 6500 or learn more at https://www.modernatx.com.

Moderna Investment Alerts

Many investors view ongoing market volatility as an opportunity to purchase more stocks at a favorable price or short it to generate a bearish trend profit opportunity. If you are one of those investors, make sure you clearly understand the position you are entering. Moderna's investment alerts are automatically generated signals that are significant enough to either complement your investing judgment regarding Moderna or challenge it. These alerts can help you understand what you are buying and avoid costly mistakes.
Moderna had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 6.75 B. Net Loss for the year was (4.71 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 10.55 B.
Moderna currently holds about 8.35 B in cash with (3.12 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 21.73.
Roughly 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from zacks.com: Moderna Surpasses Market Returns Some Facts Worth Knowing

Moderna Upcoming and Recent Events

Earnings reports are used by Moderna to provide an update of all three financial statements, including the income statement, the balance sheet, and the cash flow statement. Every quarterly earnings report provides investors with three things: an overview of sales, expenses, and net income for the most recent period. It also may provide a comparison to Moderna previous reporting period. The quarterly earnings reports are usually disseminated to the public via Form 10-Q, which is a legal document filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission every quarter.
22nd of February 2024
Upcoming Quarterly Report
View
2nd of May 2024
Next Financial Report
View
31st of December 2023
Next Fiscal Quarter End
View
22nd of February 2024
Next Fiscal Year End
View
30th of September 2023
Last Quarter Report
View
31st of December 2022
Last Financial Announcement
View

Moderna Largest EPS Surprises

Earnings surprises can significantly impact Moderna's stock price both in the short term and over time. Negative earnings surprises usually result in a price decline. However, it has been seen that positive earnings surprises lead to an immediate rise in a stock's price and a gradual increase over time. This is why we often hear news about some companies beating earning projections. Financial analysts spend a large amount of time predicting earnings per share (EPS) along with other important future indicators. Many analysts use forecasting models, management guidance, and additional fundamental information to derive an EPS estimate.
Reported
Fiscal Date
Estimated EPS
Reported EPS
Surprise
2020-08-05
2020-06-30-0.35-0.310.0411 
2019-05-08
2019-03-31-0.36-0.4-0.0411 
2020-02-26
2019-12-31-0.42-0.370.0511 
View All Earnings Estimates

Moderna Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Moderna is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Moderna backward and forwards among themselves. Moderna's institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Moderna's securities or originate loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Shares
Capital World Investors2023-12-31
3.6 M
Manufacturers Life Insurance Co2023-12-31
3.5 M
Norges Bank2023-12-31
3.5 M
Coatue Management Llc2023-12-31
3.3 M
Banque Pictet & Cie Sa2023-12-31
3.1 M
Ubs Asset Mgmt Americas Inc2023-12-31
M
Northern Trust Corp2023-12-31
M
Amvescap Plc.2023-12-31
2.9 M
Legal & General Group Plc2023-12-31
2.8 M
Baillie Gifford & Co Limited.2023-12-31
45.7 M
Vanguard Group Inc2023-12-31
33.9 M
Note, although Moderna's institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Moderna Market Capitalization

The company currently falls under 'Large-Cap' category with a current market capitalization of 41.34 B. Market capitalization usually refers to the total value of a company's stock within the entire market. To calculate Moderna's market, we take the total number of its shares issued and multiply it by Moderna's current market price. To manage market risk and economic uncertainty, many investors today build portfolios that are diversified across equities with different market capitalizations. However, as a general rule, conservative investors tend to hold large-cap stocks, and those looking for more risk prefer small-cap and mid-cap equities.

Moderna Profitablity

Moderna's profitability indicators refer to fundamental financial ratios that showcase Moderna's ability to generate income relative to its revenue or operating costs. If, let's say, Moderna is currently losing money, the management's focus should be on how to reverse that trend. However, when revenue exceeds expenses, Moderna's executives or investors may be in less hurry to break that information down - which is where profitability analysis comes into play. Gaining a greater understanding of Moderna's profitability requires more research than a typical breakdown of Moderna's financial statements. By doing a profitability analysis, companies can identify areas needing attention, and investors can make a profitable trade.
The company has Profit Margin (PM) of (0.69) %, which may suggest that it does not properly executes on its current pricing strategies or is unable to control all of the operational costs. This is way below average.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Return On Tangible Assets(0.26)(0.24)
Return On Capital Employed(0.28)(0.26)
Return On Assets(0.26)(0.24)
Return On Equity(0.34)(0.32)

Management Efficiency

Moderna has return on total asset (ROA) of (0.1197) % which means that it has lost $0.1197 on every $100 spent on assets. This is way below average. Similarly, it shows a return on stockholder's equity (ROE) of (0.2859) %, meaning that it created substantial loss on money invested by shareholders. Moderna's management efficiency ratios could be used to measure how well Moderna manages its routine affairs as well as how well it operates its assets and liabilities. The current year's Return On Tangible Assets is expected to grow to -0.24. The current year's Return On Capital Employed is expected to grow to -0.26. At present, Moderna's Total Assets are projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Net Tangible Assets is expected to grow to about 23.1 B, whereas Other Current Assets are forecasted to decline to about 83.6 M.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Book Value Per Share 36.27  38.08 
Net Current Asset Value 0.00  0.00 
Tangible Asset Value 0.00  0.00 
Tangible Book Value Per Share 36.02  37.82 
Enterprise Value Over EBITDA(11.31)(11.88)
Price Book Value Ratio 2.74  2.61 
Enterprise Value Multiple(11.31)(11.88)
Price Fair Value 2.74  2.61 
Enterprise Value33.7 B35.4 B
The analysis of Moderna's management efficiency is an essential part of evaluating and assessing the financial and operational performance of the entity. It is also vital to analyze Moderna's future growth prospects and the overall market conditions to determine the value and potential of its stock. The analysis involves studying a range of financial metrics such as revenue, earnings, profit margins, cash flow, debt, market share, and external factors such as economic trends, industry outlook, competition, and government regulations. The goal of Moderna Stock analysis is to determine whether it is undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued and to make informed investment decisions.
Beta
1.586

Technical Drivers

As of the 29th of April, Moderna secures the Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0367, downside deviation of 2.78, and Mean Deviation of 2.48. In connection with fundamental indicators, the technical analysis model lets you check existing technical drivers of Moderna, as well as the relationship between them. Strictly speaking, you can use this information to find out if the firm will indeed mirror its model of past prices, or the prices will eventually revert. We were able to interpolate nineteen technical drivers for Moderna, which can be compared to its peers in the industry. Please verify Moderna coefficient of variation, maximum drawdown, skewness, as well as the relationship between the information ratio and downside variance to decide if Moderna is priced some-what accurately, providing market reflects its recent price of 107.97 per share. Given that Moderna has jensen alpha of (0.02), we recommend you to check Moderna's last-minute market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at a future point.

Moderna Price Movement Analysis

Execute Study
The output start index for this execution was thirty-five with a total number of output elements of twenty-six. The Bollinger Bands is very popular indicator that was developed by John Bollinger. It consist of three lines. Moderna middle band is a simple moving average of its typical price. The upper and lower bands are (N) standard deviations above and below the middle band. The bands widen and narrow when the volatility of the price is higher or lower, respectively. The upper and lower bands can also be interpreted as price targets for Moderna. When the price bounces off of the lower band and crosses the middle band, then the upper band becomes the price target.

Moderna Insider Trading Activities

Some recent studies suggest that insider trading raises the cost of capital for securities issuers and decreases overall economic growth. Trading by specific Moderna insiders, such as employees or executives, is commonly permitted as long as it does not rely on Moderna's material information that is not in the public domain. Local jurisdictions usually require such trading to be reported in order to monitor insider transactions. In many U.S. states, trading conducted by corporate officers, key employees, directors, or significant shareholders must be reported to the regulator or publicly disclosed, usually within a few business days of the trade. In these cases Moderna insiders are required to file a Form 4 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) when buying or selling shares of their own companies.

Moderna Predictive Daily Indicators

Moderna intraday indicators are useful technical analysis tools used by many experienced traders. Just like the conventional technical analysis, daily indicators help intraday investors to analyze the price movement with the timing of Moderna stock daily movement. By combining multiple daily indicators into a single trading strategy, you can limit your risk while still earning strong returns on your managed positions.

Moderna Corporate Filings

F4
26th of April 2024
The report filed by a party regarding the acquisition or disposition of a company's common stock, as well as derivative securities such as options, warrants, and convertible securities
ViewVerify
F4
19th of April 2024
The report filed by a party regarding the acquisition or disposition of a company's common stock, as well as derivative securities such as options, warrants, and convertible securities
ViewVerify
F4
16th of April 2024
The report filed by a party regarding the acquisition or disposition of a company's common stock, as well as derivative securities such as options, warrants, and convertible securities
ViewVerify
F4
12th of April 2024
The report filed by a party regarding the acquisition or disposition of a company's common stock, as well as derivative securities such as options, warrants, and convertible securities
ViewVerify
13A
10th of April 2024
An amended filing to the original Schedule 13G
ViewVerify
F4
9th of April 2024
The report filed by a party regarding the acquisition or disposition of a company's common stock, as well as derivative securities such as options, warrants, and convertible securities
ViewVerify
F4
5th of April 2024
The report filed by a party regarding the acquisition or disposition of a company's common stock, as well as derivative securities such as options, warrants, and convertible securities
ViewVerify
F4
29th of March 2024
The report filed by a party regarding the acquisition or disposition of a company's common stock, as well as derivative securities such as options, warrants, and convertible securities
ViewVerify

Moderna Forecast Models

Moderna's time-series forecasting models are one of many Moderna's stock analysis techniques aimed at predicting future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Moderna's historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

About Moderna Stock Analysis

Stock analysis is the technique used by a trader or investor to examine and evaluate how Moderna prices is reacting to, or reflecting on a current market direction and economic conditions. It can be used to make informed decisions about market timing, and when buying or selling Moderna shares will generate the highest return on investment. We also built our stock analysis module to help investors to gain an insight into the world economy as a whole, the stock market, thematic ideas. a specific sector, or an individual Stock such as Moderna. By using and applying Moderna Stock analysis, traders can create a robust methodology for identifying Moderna entry and exit points for their positions.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Pretax Profit Margin(0.58)(0.61)
Operating Profit Margin(0.63)(0.66)
Net Loss(0.70)(0.73)
Gross Profit Margin 0.31  0.32 

Current Moderna Analysis - Recommendations

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Moderna analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Moderna analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target PriceAdvice# of Analysts
167.65Buy26Odds
Moderna current and past analyst recommendations published by a number of research institutions as well as average analyst consensus.
Most Moderna analysts issue ratings four times a year, at intervals of three months. Ratings are usually accompanied by a target price to helps potential investors understand Moderna stock's fair price compared to its market value. Analysts arrive at stock ratings after researching public financial statements of Moderna, talking to its executives and customers, or listening to Moderna conference calls.
Moderna Analyst Advice Details

Moderna Stock Analysis Indicators

Moderna stock analysis indicators help investors evaluate how Moderna stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing and determine when trading Moderna shares will generate the highest return on investment. By understating and applying Moderna stock analysis, traders can identify Moderna position entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Begin Period Cash Flow3.2 B
Common Stock Shares Outstanding382 M
Total Stockholder Equity13.9 B
Tax Provision1.1 B
Quarterly Earnings Growth Y O Y-0.851
Property Plant And Equipment Net2.7 B
Cash And Short Term Investments8.6 B
Cash2.9 B
Accounts Payable520 M
Net Debt-1.7 B
50 Day M A102.234
Total Current LiabilitiesB
Other Operating Expenses11 B
Non Current Assets Total8.1 B
Forward Price Earnings32.4675
Non Currrent Assets Other523 M
Stock Based Compensation305 M
When determining whether Moderna offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Moderna's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Moderna Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Moderna Stock:
Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Moderna. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors.
For information on how to trade Moderna Stock refer to our How to Trade Moderna Stock guide.
You can also try the Positions Ratings module to determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

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When running Moderna's price analysis, check to measure Moderna's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Moderna is operating at the current time. Most of Moderna's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Moderna's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Moderna's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Moderna to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Moderna's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Moderna. If investors know Moderna will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Moderna listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.85)
Earnings Share
(12.33)
Revenue Per Share
17.927
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.45)
Return On Assets
(0.12)
The market value of Moderna is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Moderna that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Moderna's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Moderna's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Moderna's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Moderna's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Moderna's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Moderna is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Moderna's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.